Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

BACKGROUND: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduct...

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Autores: Boldo, Elena, Linares-Gil, Cristina, Aragones, Nuria, Lumbreras, Julio, Borge, Rafael, de la Paz, David, Perez-Gomez, Beatriz, Fernandez-Navarro, Pablo L, García-Pérez, Javier, Pollan-Santamaria, Marina, Ramis, Rebeca, Moreno, Teresa, Karanasiou, Angeliki, Lopez-Abente, Gonzalo
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2014
País:España
Institución:Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)
Repositorio:Repisalud
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/7842
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/7842
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Air Pollution
Humans
Lung Neoplasms
Myocardial Ischemia
Particulate Matter
Spain
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spelling Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in SpainBoldo, ElenaLinares-Gil, CristinaAragones, NuriaLumbreras, JulioBorge, Rafaelde la Paz, DavidPerez-Gomez, BeatrizFernandez-Navarro, Pablo LGarcía-Pérez, JavierPollan-Santamaria, MarinaRamis, RebecaMoreno, TeresaKaranasiou, AngelikiLopez-Abente, GonzaloAir PollutionHumansLung NeoplasmsMyocardial IschemiaParticulate MatterSpainBACKGROUND: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. METHODS: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16×16km(2). In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. RESULTS: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1µg/m(3) by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. CONCLUSIONS: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline in fine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.ElsevierMinisterio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente (España)20192019-07-0320142014-01-0120142014-01-01research articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/7842reponame:Repisaludinstname:Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)InglésengES 058 PC08open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/78422026-06-12T12:43:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
title Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
spellingShingle Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
Boldo, Elena
Air Pollution
Humans
Lung Neoplasms
Myocardial Ischemia
Particulate Matter
Spain
title_short Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
title_full Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
title_fullStr Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
title_full_unstemmed Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
title_sort Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Boldo, Elena
Linares-Gil, Cristina
Aragones, Nuria
Lumbreras, Julio
Borge, Rafael
de la Paz, David
Perez-Gomez, Beatriz
Fernandez-Navarro, Pablo L
García-Pérez, Javier
Pollan-Santamaria, Marina
Ramis, Rebeca
Moreno, Teresa
Karanasiou, Angeliki
Lopez-Abente, Gonzalo
author Boldo, Elena
author_facet Boldo, Elena
Linares-Gil, Cristina
Aragones, Nuria
Lumbreras, Julio
Borge, Rafael
de la Paz, David
Perez-Gomez, Beatriz
Fernandez-Navarro, Pablo L
García-Pérez, Javier
Pollan-Santamaria, Marina
Ramis, Rebeca
Moreno, Teresa
Karanasiou, Angeliki
Lopez-Abente, Gonzalo
author_role author
author2 Linares-Gil, Cristina
Aragones, Nuria
Lumbreras, Julio
Borge, Rafael
de la Paz, David
Perez-Gomez, Beatriz
Fernandez-Navarro, Pablo L
García-Pérez, Javier
Pollan-Santamaria, Marina
Ramis, Rebeca
Moreno, Teresa
Karanasiou, Angeliki
Lopez-Abente, Gonzalo
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente (España)
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Air Pollution
Humans
Lung Neoplasms
Myocardial Ischemia
Particulate Matter
Spain
topic Air Pollution
Humans
Lung Neoplasms
Myocardial Ischemia
Particulate Matter
Spain
description BACKGROUND: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. METHODS: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16×16km(2). In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. RESULTS: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1µg/m(3) by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. CONCLUSIONS: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline in fine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014
2014-01-01
2014
2014-01-01
2019
2019-07-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv research article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/7842
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/7842
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv ES 058 PC08
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repisalud
instname:Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)
instname_str Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)
reponame_str Repisalud
collection Repisalud
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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