Predicting Hospitalisation In Older Patients Attended In The Emergency Department Using Classical And Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Strategies

Background: The ageing population poses a significant challenge for health and social care systems. Emergency Departments (EDs) frequently experience overcrowding due to the high volume of patients and the limited availability of hospital beds. From the perspective of bed management planners, knowin...

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Autores: Larrea Aguirre, Nere, Garcia Gutierrez, Susana|||0000-0002-8474-2479, Miró, Oscar|||0000-0002-7924-9751, Jacob, Javier|||0000-0003-1101-1066, Llorens Soriano, Pere|||0000-0002-9291-7179, Burillo Putze, Guillermo|||0000-0001-5679-7846, Fernández Alonso, Cesáreo|||0000-0002-2152-4001, Alquézar-Arbé, A.|||0000-0003-4164-274X, Aguiló, Sira|||0000-0001-9334-1282, Montero Pérez, F.J., Bermejo, J.J.N., Maza Vera, M.T., García García, Á., Ezponda, Patxi|||0000-0003-2595-5009, Lorenzo, A.M., Almela, A.F.S., Santos Martin, J.M., Ramón, S.S., Liarte, J.V.O., Berenguer Diez, M.A., Puente, P.H., Olagüenaga, A.M., Fernandez, E.C., Molina, L., Juan, M.M., Nieves Rodríguez, E., González del Castillo, J.|||0000-0002-4329-9802, Jorge García Lamberechts, E., Queizán García, P., Bravo Periago, A.B., Andrea Gallardo Sánchez, B., Melcon Villalibre, A., Vargas Lobé, S., Fernández García, L., Escudero Blázquez, B., Iván Diaz Salado, Á., Fuente Gaforio, A., Güemes de la Iglesia, C., Honrado Galán, B., Moreno Ruíz, S., Martín Mojarro, E., Flores Quesada, S., Jorge Troiano Ungerer, O., Vaswani-Bulchand, A., Eiroa-Hernández, P., Rodríguez-Cabrera, M., Piñera Salmerón, P., Consuelo Quesada Martínez, M., Isabel Gómez Gómez, M., Reverte Pagán, Y., Bernabé Vera, L., José López Pérez, J., Santos Villanueva, R., Lozano Berdasco, M., Ampuero Martinich, D., Jiménez, Sonia, Xavier Alemany González, Francesc, Florencia Poblete Palacios, María, Amarilla Molinas, Claudia Lorena, Gina Osorio Quispe, Ivet, Cuerpo Cardeñosa, Sandra|||0000-0002-9096-2224, González Tejera, M., Puche Alcaraz, A., Chacón García, C., Serrano Lázaro, L., Millán Soria, J., Mansilla Collado, J., Bóveda García, M., Rodrigo, A.G., Espinosa Fernández, B., Veguillas Benito, M., Guzmán Martínez, S., Jara Torres, G., Caballero Martínez, M., Llopis, Ferran|||0000-0003-1922-1092, Fuentes, Elena, Fuentes, Lidia, Chamorro, Francisco, Guille, Lara, López, Nieves, Zambrano Serrano, L., Muñoz Martos, R., Suero Méndez, C., Mota Salido, M., Toro Gallardo, V., Real López, A., Ocaña Martínez, L., Muñoz Soler, E., Lozano Sánchez, M., Fraguero Blesa, E., Beddar Chaib, F., Javier Gil Hernández, R., Pedraza García, J., Pedraza Ramírez, P., Javier Montero-Pérez, F., Lucena Aguilera, C., de Borja Quero Espinosa, F., Cobos Requena, A., Muñoz Triano, E., Bajo Fernández, I., Calderón Caro, M., Bretones Baena, S., Fernández Cardona, M., Andrés Berián, L., Esther Martinez Larrull, M., Gordo Remartinez, S.|||0000-0003-3747-5811, Isabel Castuera Gil, A., Martín González, L., San Julian Romero, M., Jiménez Lucena, M., Ibisate Cubillas, A., de Diego Arnaiz, M., Castro Jiménez, V., González Ferreira, L., Hernando González, R., Santos Orús, M., Carlos Chávez Flores, R., Alvarez Madrigal, A., Carbó Jordá, A.|||0000-0002-9980-4388, Lago Gancedo, H., Moreno Martín, M., Antonio Pérez-Costa, R., Rodríguez Romero, M., Barnes Parra, A., Sánchez Aroca, Sara, Sara Knabe, A., Cantos López, A., Terol Calvo, R., Velasco Garcia, M., José Hernández Martínez, M., Benito Blanco, A., Abad Cuñado, V., Martínez-Ibarreta Zorita, J., Cabrera Rodrigo, I., Quero Motto, E., Tomas Garcia, N., Bernal Martínez, L., Parra Morata, M., Escudero Sánchez, C., Joaquín Giménez Belló, J., Adroher Muñoz, M., Soy Ferrer, E., Anton Poch Ferrer, E., Hong Cho, J.U., Trenc Español, P., López López, F., Navarro Calzada, J., Gros Bañeres, B., Martín Durán, C., Teresa Escolar Martínez-Berganza, M., González Salvatierra, I., Gayoso Martín, S., Sánchez Sindín, G., Zapico, A.P., Pazos González, J., Cirera, Isabel|||0000-0002-8342-6474, Gallardo Vizcaíno, Patricia, Puiggali Ballard, Margarita, Carmen Petrus Rivas, Maria, Doi, Adriana|||0000-0002-2444-9238, Herrera, Sergio|||0000-0001-6134-0402, Trejo Gutierrez, Olga Maria|||0000-0002-7482-0584, Ponte Márquez, Paola Helena|||0000-0002-4226-4720, Romero, Carlos|||0009-0002-1803-6303, Pérez Baena, Sergio, Llauger, L., Murcia Olagüenaga, A., Francesena González, S., Roza Alonso, C., Tavasci Lopez, I., Ramon Figuera Castro, E., Juárez González, R., Sousa, M., Cañete, M., Ruescas, E., Martínez Juan, M., José Blanco Hoffman, M., Ruiz Asensio, P., Fernandez Salgado, Fátima, de las Nieves Rodríguez, E., Gómez García, G., Paderne Díaz, B., Fernández-Simón Almela, A., Pérez García, E., Rivas Del Valle, P., Sánchez Moreno, M., Rios Gallardo, R., Pablos Pizarro, T., Herranz García, M., Redondo Lora, L., Amparo Berenguer Diez, M., Ángeles De Juan Gómez, M., Luisa López Grima, M., Jesús Del Rio Navarro, R., Comas Diaz, B., Guiu Martí, S., Domínguez Casasola, J., Rull Bertrán, P., Perelló Viola, N., López-Laguna, N., Hernández-Castells, L., Noceda Bermejo, José, Teresa Sánchez Moreno, M., Benavent Campos, R., Garcia Acosta, Jacinto, Cortés Soler, A., Teresa Maza Vera, M., Rodríguez Calveiro, R., Balado Dacosta, P., Delgado Sardina, V., González Nespereira, E., Fernández Domato, C., Sánchez Fernández-Linares, E., Javier Diego Robledo, F., Ángel Palomero Martín, M., Sánchez Serrano, J. Ángel, Martínez Lorenzo, A., Soriano, M., Vicente Ortega Liarte, J., Sánchez Ramón, S., García Rupérez, I., González Garcinuño, P., Hernando Fernández, R., Ramón Oliva Ramos, J., Carbajosa Rodríguez, V., Maria Santos Martin, J., Borne Jerez, S., Ruiz Aranda, A., José Marchena, M., Prieto Piquero, E., Mendes Moreira, H., Lobo Cortizo, I., Turcios Torres, J., Hinojosa Diaz, L., Santianes Patiño, J., Gutiérrez Alcalá, O.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:320406
Acceso en línea:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/320406
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.56808/2586-940X.1141
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Emergency medicine
Health care system
Hospital prediction
Overcrowd
Descripción
Sumario:Background: The ageing population poses a significant challenge for health and social care systems. Emergency Departments (EDs) frequently experience overcrowding due to the high volume of patients and the limited availability of hospital beds. From the perspective of bed management planners, knowing the likelihood of a patient's admission at the earliest stage of care can be highly beneficial for effective resource planning. The goal of our study was to develop a prediction model to identify patients with a high probability of being admitted to the hospital. Methods: We included all patients aged 65 or older who were treated over the course of one week in 52 Spanish Emergency Departments. The data collected included socio-demographic characteristics, baseline functional status, comorbidities, vital signs, chronic treatments, and laboratory test results. The primary outcome variable was hospital admission. We applied several mathematical strategies to develop the most accurate model for identifying high-risk patients likely to require hospitalisation. Results: The most effective model was developed using a random forest algorithm, incorporating various variables available during patient care in the ED. The probability of admission was categorised into four risk groups: 2.19 %, 15.65 %, 25.09 %, and 57.08 %. The resulting model had a sensitivity of 0.88. Conclusion: We developed a high-sensitivity score for hospital admission in older patients treated in the ED to enhance the management of patient flow by bed planners. This score will help prevent ED overcrowding, which compromises patient safety and disrupts the healthcare system.

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