Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos

The present research commences with a revision of the concepts of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. This is a basic requirement for the construction of the theoretical framework herein developed. A revision of commonly used concepts is offered in order to identify gaps and fine-tune definitions that...

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Autor: Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario
Tipo de recurso: tesis doctoral
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2001
País:España
Institución:CBUC, CESCA
Repositorio:TDR. Tesis Doctorales en Red
OAI Identifier:oai:www.tdx.cat:10803/6219
Acceso en línea:http://www.tdx.cat/TDX-0416102-075520
http://hdl.handle.net/10803/6219
https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-93531
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:sistemes dinàmics
risc sismic
3305. Tecnologia de la construcció
55
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network_name_str España
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dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
title Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
spellingShingle Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario
sistemes dinàmics
risc sismic
3305. Tecnologia de la construcció
55
title_short Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
title_full Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
title_fullStr Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
title_full_unstemmed Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
title_sort Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario
author Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario
author_facet Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Barbat, Álex H. (Álex Horia)
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria del Terreny, Cartogràfica i Geofísica
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv sistemes dinàmics
risc sismic
3305. Tecnologia de la construcció
55
topic sistemes dinàmics
risc sismic
3305. Tecnologia de la construcció
55
description The present research commences with a revision of the concepts of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. This is a basic requirement for the construction of the theoretical framework herein developed. A revision of commonly used concepts is offered in order to identify gaps and fine-tune definitions that will help in the search to offer a coherent and integrated theoretical framework. Approaches developed in the natural, applied, and social sciences are discussed and a criticism of these is offered. It is argued that conceptual fragmentation and inconsistency have been two of the reasons why risk reduction has been in good part unsuccessful in a large number of countries. The lack of an adequate conceptual basis has impeded adequate interventions.<br/>Risk is understood in terms of potentially dangerous events and the vulnerability of exposed social elements. This type of analysis is linked into decision-making processes, and the difficulties associated with the implementation of risk reduction public policies are made explicit. Inherent uncertainty and reductionist approaches help explain this problem. Moreover, factors such as risk perception of decision-makers; legal contexts that impede preventive actions, and the general problem of levels of risk tolerance and acceptability also come into play.<br/>The traditional approach to evaluating urban seismic risk is revised. This involves a consideration of the physical effects and damage to be expected in exposed elements under determined seismic conditions. Modern techniques for seismic vulnerability estimates and knowledge in the area of loss and damage are summarized. And, the better approach to physical urban seismic risk evaluation from the perspective of the author is provided.<br/>A coherent and consistent conceptual risk model is provided based on complex non-lineal dynamic systems theory. This allows an explanation of the concept of crisis, instability and adaptability relating this to the concepts of disaster, vulnerability, risk and prevention. Urban centres are seen as complex dynamic systems. Two holistic urban seismic risk-modeling techniques are then proposed. The first methodology is based on relative indicators using hierarchical and pairwise analytical processes. The second methodology employs neural networks and fuzzy sets approaches. The two methodologies take into account the physical, economic, social and institutional variables, which allow a multidisciplinary approach to seismic risk assessment. The methods are subsequently employed in the estimation of seismic risk in the city of Bogotá, Colombia.<br/>Finally, a risk management strategy is proposed as a planning tool, and a global proposal is made for facing collective risk, which is a clearly significant contemporary technical and social problem. Recommendations are made, as regards needed future studies and research.
publishDate 2001
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2001
2002
2002
2011
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format doctoralThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://www.tdx.cat/TDX-0416102-075520
http://hdl.handle.net/10803/6219
https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-93531
url http://www.tdx.cat/TDX-0416102-075520
http://hdl.handle.net/10803/6219
https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-93531
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Español
language_invalid_str_mv Español
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv TDX (Tesis Doctorals en Xarxa)
reponame:TDR. Tesis Doctorales en Red
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spelling Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejosCardona Arboleda, Omar Dariosistemes dinàmicsrisc sismic3305. Tecnologia de la construcció55The present research commences with a revision of the concepts of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. This is a basic requirement for the construction of the theoretical framework herein developed. A revision of commonly used concepts is offered in order to identify gaps and fine-tune definitions that will help in the search to offer a coherent and integrated theoretical framework. Approaches developed in the natural, applied, and social sciences are discussed and a criticism of these is offered. It is argued that conceptual fragmentation and inconsistency have been two of the reasons why risk reduction has been in good part unsuccessful in a large number of countries. The lack of an adequate conceptual basis has impeded adequate interventions.<br/>Risk is understood in terms of potentially dangerous events and the vulnerability of exposed social elements. This type of analysis is linked into decision-making processes, and the difficulties associated with the implementation of risk reduction public policies are made explicit. Inherent uncertainty and reductionist approaches help explain this problem. Moreover, factors such as risk perception of decision-makers; legal contexts that impede preventive actions, and the general problem of levels of risk tolerance and acceptability also come into play.<br/>The traditional approach to evaluating urban seismic risk is revised. This involves a consideration of the physical effects and damage to be expected in exposed elements under determined seismic conditions. Modern techniques for seismic vulnerability estimates and knowledge in the area of loss and damage are summarized. And, the better approach to physical urban seismic risk evaluation from the perspective of the author is provided.<br/>A coherent and consistent conceptual risk model is provided based on complex non-lineal dynamic systems theory. This allows an explanation of the concept of crisis, instability and adaptability relating this to the concepts of disaster, vulnerability, risk and prevention. Urban centres are seen as complex dynamic systems. Two holistic urban seismic risk-modeling techniques are then proposed. The first methodology is based on relative indicators using hierarchical and pairwise analytical processes. The second methodology employs neural networks and fuzzy sets approaches. The two methodologies take into account the physical, economic, social and institutional variables, which allow a multidisciplinary approach to seismic risk assessment. The methods are subsequently employed in the estimation of seismic risk in the city of Bogotá, Colombia.<br/>Finally, a risk management strategy is proposed as a planning tool, and a global proposal is made for facing collective risk, which is a clearly significant contemporary technical and social problem. Recommendations are made, as regards needed future studies and research.DOCTORAT EN ENGINYERIA SÍSMICA I DINÀMICA ESTRUCTURAL (Pla 1998)Universitat Politècnica de CatalunyaBarbat, Álex H. (Álex Horia)Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria del Terreny, Cartogràfica i Geofísica2011200220012002info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://www.tdx.cat/TDX-0416102-075520http://hdl.handle.net/10803/6219https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-93531TDX (Tesis Doctorals en Xarxa)reponame:TDR. Tesis Doctorales en Redinstname:CBUC, CESCAEspañolADVERTIMENT. L'accés als continguts d'aquesta tesi doctoral i la seva utilització ha de respectar els drets de la persona autora. Pot ser utilitzada per a consulta o estudi personal, així com en activitats o materials d'investigació i docència en els termes establerts a l'art. 32 del Text Refós de la Llei de Propietat Intel·lectual (RDL 1/1996). Per altres utilitzacions es requereix l'autorització prèvia i expressa de la persona autora. En qualsevol cas, en la utilització dels seus continguts caldrà indicar de forma clara el nom i cognoms de la persona autora i el títol de la tesi doctoral. No s'autoritza la seva reproducció o altres formes d'explotació efectuades amb finalitats de lucre ni la seva comunicació pública des d'un lloc aliè al servei TDX. Tampoc s'autoritza la presentació del seu contingut en una finestra o marc aliè a TDX (framing). Aquesta reserva de drets afecta tant als continguts de la tesi com als seus resums i índexs.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:www.tdx.cat:10803/62192026-06-14T12:46:07Z
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