On maximum entropy priors and a most likely likelihood in auditing

There are two basic questions auditors and accountants must consider when developing test and estimation applications using Bayes' Theorem: What prior probability function should be used and what likelihood function should be used. In this paper we propose to use a maximum entropy prior probabi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Hernández Bastida, Agustín, Martel Escobar, Mª del Carmen, Vázquez Polo, Francisco J.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:1998
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2099/4089
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2099/4089
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Statistics
Decision theory
Maximum entropy
Partial prior information
Auditing
Estadística
Teoria de la decisió
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62A01 Foundational and philosophical topics
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62C Decision theory
Descripción
Sumario:There are two basic questions auditors and accountants must consider when developing test and estimation applications using Bayes' Theorem: What prior probability function should be used and what likelihood function should be used. In this paper we propose to use a maximum entropy prior probability function MEP with the most likely likelihood function MLL in the Quasi-Bayesian QB model introduced by McCray (1984). It is defined on an adequate parameter. Thus procedure only needs an expected value of θ0 known (in this paper the expected tainting) to obtain a MEP all an auditor or accountant need to supply are the range, as with any other prior, and the expected tainting, θ0. We will see some practical applications of the methodology proposed about internal control evaluation in auditing.