Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere

Climatic warming has advanced spring phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, but the spatial variability in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology is substantial. Whether spring phenology will continue to advance uniformly at latitudes has not yet been investigated. We used Bayesian model ave...

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Autores: Liu, Qiang, Piao, Shilong|||0000-0001-8057-2292, Fu, Yongshuo H.|||0000-0002-9761-5292, Gao, Mengdi|||0000-0002-9651-4043, Peñuelas, Josep|||0000-0002-7215-0150, Janssens, Ivan|||0000-0002-5705-1787
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Recursos:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:203556
Acesso em linha:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/203556
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1029/2018GL081370
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Spring phenology synchrony
Spring phenology model
Temperature sensitivity
Climatic warming
Bayesian model averaging
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spelling Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern HemisphereLiu, QiangPiao, Shilong|||0000-0001-8057-2292Fu, Yongshuo H.|||0000-0002-9761-5292Gao, Mengdi|||0000-0002-9651-4043Peñuelas, Josep|||0000-0002-7215-0150Janssens, Ivan|||0000-0002-5705-1787Spring phenology synchronySpring phenology modelTemperature sensitivityClimatic warmingBayesian model averagingClimatic warming has advanced spring phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, but the spatial variability in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology is substantial. Whether spring phenology will continue to advance uniformly at latitudes has not yet been investigated. We used Bayesian model averaging and four spring phenology models, and demonstrated that the start of vegetation growing season across the Northern Hemisphere will become substantially more synchronous (up to 11.3%) under future climatic warming conditions. Larger start of growing season advances are expected at higher than lower latitudes (3.7-10.9 days earlier) due to both larger rate in spring warming at higher latitudes and larger decreases in the temperature sensitivity of start of growing season at low latitudes. The consequent impacts on the northern ecosystems due to this increased synchrony may be considerable and thus worth investigating. 22019-01-0120192019-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/203556https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1029/2018GL081370reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest material està protegit per drets d'autor i/o drets afins. Podeu utilitzar aquest material en funció del que permet la legislació de drets d'autor i drets afins d'aplicació al vostre cas. Per a d'altres usos heu d'obtenir permís del(s) titular(s) de drets.https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ddd.uab.cat:2035562026-06-06T12:50:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
title Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
spellingShingle Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
Liu, Qiang
Spring phenology synchrony
Spring phenology model
Temperature sensitivity
Climatic warming
Bayesian model averaging
title_short Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
title_full Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
title_fullStr Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
title_full_unstemmed Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
title_sort Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Liu, Qiang
Piao, Shilong|||0000-0001-8057-2292
Fu, Yongshuo H.|||0000-0002-9761-5292
Gao, Mengdi|||0000-0002-9651-4043
Peñuelas, Josep|||0000-0002-7215-0150
Janssens, Ivan|||0000-0002-5705-1787
author Liu, Qiang
author_facet Liu, Qiang
Piao, Shilong|||0000-0001-8057-2292
Fu, Yongshuo H.|||0000-0002-9761-5292
Gao, Mengdi|||0000-0002-9651-4043
Peñuelas, Josep|||0000-0002-7215-0150
Janssens, Ivan|||0000-0002-5705-1787
author_role author
author2 Piao, Shilong|||0000-0001-8057-2292
Fu, Yongshuo H.|||0000-0002-9761-5292
Gao, Mengdi|||0000-0002-9651-4043
Peñuelas, Josep|||0000-0002-7215-0150
Janssens, Ivan|||0000-0002-5705-1787
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Spring phenology synchrony
Spring phenology model
Temperature sensitivity
Climatic warming
Bayesian model averaging
topic Spring phenology synchrony
Spring phenology model
Temperature sensitivity
Climatic warming
Bayesian model averaging
description Climatic warming has advanced spring phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, but the spatial variability in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology is substantial. Whether spring phenology will continue to advance uniformly at latitudes has not yet been investigated. We used Bayesian model averaging and four spring phenology models, and demonstrated that the start of vegetation growing season across the Northern Hemisphere will become substantially more synchronous (up to 11.3%) under future climatic warming conditions. Larger start of growing season advances are expected at higher than lower latitudes (3.7-10.9 days earlier) due to both larger rate in spring warming at higher latitudes and larger decreases in the temperature sensitivity of start of growing season at low latitudes. The consequent impacts on the northern ecosystems due to this increased synchrony may be considerable and thus worth investigating.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2
2019-01-01
2019
2019-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://ddd.uab.cat/record/203556
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1029/2018GL081370
url https://ddd.uab.cat/record/203556
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1029/2018GL081370
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
instname_str Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
collection Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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