Bayesian analysis of realized matrix-exponential GARCH models

The paper develops a new realized matrix-exponential GARCH (MEGARCH) model, which uses the information of returns and realized measure of co-volatility matrix simultaneously. The paper also considers an alternative multivariate asymmetric function to develop news impact curves. We consider Bayesian...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Asai, Manabu, McAleer, Michael
Tipo de recurso: informe técnico
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/17409
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/17409
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:C11
C32
Multivariate GARCH
Realized Measure
Matrix-Exponential
Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method
Asymmetry.
Análisis matemático
Econometría (Economía)
1202 Análisis y Análisis Funcional
5302 Econometría
Descripción
Sumario:The paper develops a new realized matrix-exponential GARCH (MEGARCH) model, which uses the information of returns and realized measure of co-volatility matrix simultaneously. The paper also considers an alternative multivariate asymmetric function to develop news impact curves. We consider Bayesian MCMC estimation to allow non-normal posterior distributions. For three US financial assets, we compare the realized MEGARCH models with existing multivariate GARCH class models. The empirical results indicate that the realized MEGARCH models outperform the other models regarding in-sample and out-of-sample performance. The news impact curves based on the posterior densities provide reasonable results.