Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter

Aim The Mediterranean Basin is threatened by climate change, and there is an urgent need for studies to determine the risk of plant range shift and potential extinction. In this study, we simulate potential range shifts of 176 plant species to perform a detailed prognosis of critical range decline a...

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Autores: Benito de Pando, B. M., Lorite Moreno, J., Pérez Pérez, Ramón, Gómez Aparicio, Lorena, Peñas de Giles, Julio
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2013
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/86735
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/86735
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Cellular automaton
Dispersal kernel
Dynamic species distribution models
Global warming
Range shift
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spelling Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matterBenito de Pando, B. M.Lorite Moreno, J.Pérez Pérez, RamónGómez Aparicio, LorenaPeñas de Giles, JulioCellular automatonDispersal kernelDynamic species distribution modelsGlobal warmingRange shiftAim The Mediterranean Basin is threatened by climate change, and there is an urgent need for studies to determine the risk of plant range shift and potential extinction. In this study, we simulate potential range shifts of 176 plant species to perform a detailed prognosis of critical range decline and extinction in a transformed mediterranean landscape. Particularly, we seek to answer two pivotal questions: (1) what are the general plant-extinction patterns we should expect in mediterranean landscapes during the 21st century? and (2) does dispersal ability prevent extinction under climate change? Location Andalusia: southern Iberian Peninsula; 87,597 km2; 300 by 520 km. Methods We gathered information on the dispersal traits of 176 plant species (dispersal vector, average and maximum dispersal distances, shape of the dispersal kernel). We used these data to feed a stochastic dynamic species distribution model (a combination of a cellular automaton with an ensemble of species distribution models) to simulate plant range shift under climate change with realistic dispersal under two different warming scenarios. We compared dispersal and non-dispersal simulations to assess the influence that climate change and species-distribution characteristics exert on plant-extinction patterns. Results The dispersal simulation showed a lower percentage of extinct (−1%) and quasi-extinct species (−19%) than did the non-dispersal simulation. Summer temperatures of 37 °C and 33 °C, respectively, accelerated the critical range decline and extinction rates. The average elevation of the plant populations was the variable with the highest influence on extinction probability. Main conclusions Stochastic dynamic species distribution models proved to be useful when there was lack of data on dispersal distances and population dynamics. Dispersal ability showed minor effectiveness in preventing extinction, but greatly reduced the likelihood of critical range decline for a significant percentage of species.Funding for B.M.B. was from the 'Consejería de Economía, Innovación y Ciencia, Junta de Andalucía' project RNM-6734 (MIGRAME).Peer reviewedWiley-Blackwell201320132013info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://hdl.handle.net/10261/86735reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12148info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/867352026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
title Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
spellingShingle Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
Benito de Pando, B. M.
Cellular automaton
Dispersal kernel
Dynamic species distribution models
Global warming
Range shift
title_short Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
title_full Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
title_fullStr Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
title_sort Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Benito de Pando, B. M.
Lorite Moreno, J.
Pérez Pérez, Ramón
Gómez Aparicio, Lorena
Peñas de Giles, Julio
author Benito de Pando, B. M.
author_facet Benito de Pando, B. M.
Lorite Moreno, J.
Pérez Pérez, Ramón
Gómez Aparicio, Lorena
Peñas de Giles, Julio
author_role author
author2 Lorite Moreno, J.
Pérez Pérez, Ramón
Gómez Aparicio, Lorena
Peñas de Giles, Julio
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Cellular automaton
Dispersal kernel
Dynamic species distribution models
Global warming
Range shift
topic Cellular automaton
Dispersal kernel
Dynamic species distribution models
Global warming
Range shift
description Aim The Mediterranean Basin is threatened by climate change, and there is an urgent need for studies to determine the risk of plant range shift and potential extinction. In this study, we simulate potential range shifts of 176 plant species to perform a detailed prognosis of critical range decline and extinction in a transformed mediterranean landscape. Particularly, we seek to answer two pivotal questions: (1) what are the general plant-extinction patterns we should expect in mediterranean landscapes during the 21st century? and (2) does dispersal ability prevent extinction under climate change? Location Andalusia: southern Iberian Peninsula; 87,597 km2; 300 by 520 km. Methods We gathered information on the dispersal traits of 176 plant species (dispersal vector, average and maximum dispersal distances, shape of the dispersal kernel). We used these data to feed a stochastic dynamic species distribution model (a combination of a cellular automaton with an ensemble of species distribution models) to simulate plant range shift under climate change with realistic dispersal under two different warming scenarios. We compared dispersal and non-dispersal simulations to assess the influence that climate change and species-distribution characteristics exert on plant-extinction patterns. Results The dispersal simulation showed a lower percentage of extinct (−1%) and quasi-extinct species (−19%) than did the non-dispersal simulation. Summer temperatures of 37 °C and 33 °C, respectively, accelerated the critical range decline and extinction rates. The average elevation of the plant populations was the variable with the highest influence on extinction probability. Main conclusions Stochastic dynamic species distribution models proved to be useful when there was lack of data on dispersal distances and population dynamics. Dispersal ability showed minor effectiveness in preventing extinction, but greatly reduced the likelihood of critical range decline for a significant percentage of species.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013
2013
2013
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/86735
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/86735
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12148
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley-Blackwell
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley-Blackwell
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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