Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve

The consumption of energy and carbon emissions related income growths are a development challenge requiring analysis and policy insights. Several analysis of future change in economies relies on quantitative point forecasts within which accuracy is difficult to achieve. A System Dynamics (SD) model...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor: Robalino López, Andrés
Formato: tesis doctoral
Fecha de publicación:2014
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Huelva (UHU)
Repositorio:Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ariasmontano.uhu.es:10272/8775
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10272/8775
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Carbón -- Aspecto del medio ambiente
Ecuador
Emissions-energy
Kaya-Identity
Decomposition-Analysis
EKC
Sustainable-Development
Emisiones-Energía
Identidad-Kaya
Análisis-Descomposición
CKA
Desarrollo-Sostenible
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spelling Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets CurveRobalino López, AndrésCarbón -- Aspecto del medio ambienteEcuadorEmissions-energyKaya-IdentityDecomposition-AnalysisEKCSustainable-DevelopmentEmisiones-EnergíaIdentidad-KayaAnálisis-DescomposiciónCKADesarrollo-SostenibleThe consumption of energy and carbon emissions related income growths are a development challenge requiring analysis and policy insights. Several analysis of future change in economies relies on quantitative point forecasts within which accuracy is difficult to achieve. A System Dynamics (SD) model based on scenario analysis approach has been built for Ecuador within the medium term (up to 2025). This research applied a combination of decomposition analysis and scenario analysis to identify and analyze the driving forces of change of CO2 emissions in Ecuador, historically from 1980-2010 and in the coming future to 2025. The historical decomposition used the LMDI technique and was further quantified to 2025 using an integrated qualitative and quantitative scenario approach to explore plausible alternative developments. The historical analysis gives insights at macro and sectoral level to attribute change to a range of structural, scale, energy mix, and intensity effects. The macro decomposition was based on an extended Kaya identity while the sectoral try to offers deeper insights. In addition a formation of GDP approach that depends on renewable energy, which introduces a feedback mechanism in the model and allows us to generate a non-trivial evolution of the system has been introduced in the model building. The four scenarios show divergence in emissions trajectories based on alternative development paths. In particular, it was paid special attention to the effect of a reduction of the share of fossil energy, as well as of an improvement in the efficiency of the fossil energy use. The outcomes estimated are in absolute emission totals but also in sectoral contribution. In a deeper analysis of the model outcome, we has studied the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for Ecuador in a forthcoming period, 2011-2025 using the proposed scenarios. Our proposal goes a step further than previous contributions, and intends to see under which conditions a country could approach the fulfillment of this hypothesis in the medium term. The results do not support the fulfillment of the EKC, nevertheless, the estimations show that Ecuador could be on the way to achieving environmental stabilization in the near future. Indeed, our estimates show that Ecuador could be able to enter the area of environmental stability (second stage of the EKC) in the medium term (2019-2021). However, to achieve this goal it is essential to implement policies that allow the diversification of energy sources and to increase energy efficiency in the productive sectors in order to get more sustainable development. The final conclusion of this work suggests that emissions can evolve on higher or lower emissions trajectories based not only on the evolution of economic growth but on the evolution of the development path. Within the development path, economic growth interacts with governance and societal choices and the other driving forces.Universidad de HuelvaGarcía Ramos, José EnriqueMena Nieto, Ángel IsidroUniversidad de Huelva. Departamento de Física Aplicada20142014-01-0120142014-01-01doctoral thesishttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10272/8775reponame:Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelvainstname:Universidad de Huelva (UHU)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ariasmontano.uhu.es:10272/87752026-06-02T14:58:11Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
title Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
spellingShingle Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
Robalino López, Andrés
Carbón -- Aspecto del medio ambiente
Ecuador
Emissions-energy
Kaya-Identity
Decomposition-Analysis
EKC
Sustainable-Development
Emisiones-Energía
Identidad-Kaya
Análisis-Descomposición
CKA
Desarrollo-Sostenible
title_short Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
title_full Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
title_fullStr Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
title_full_unstemmed Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
title_sort Carbon emissions, energy consumption and sustainable development in Ecuador (1980-2025) : system dynamics modelling, decomposition analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Robalino López, Andrés
author Robalino López, Andrés
author_facet Robalino López, Andrés
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv García Ramos, José Enrique
Mena Nieto, Ángel Isidro
Universidad de Huelva. Departamento de Física Aplicada
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Carbón -- Aspecto del medio ambiente
Ecuador
Emissions-energy
Kaya-Identity
Decomposition-Analysis
EKC
Sustainable-Development
Emisiones-Energía
Identidad-Kaya
Análisis-Descomposición
CKA
Desarrollo-Sostenible
topic Carbón -- Aspecto del medio ambiente
Ecuador
Emissions-energy
Kaya-Identity
Decomposition-Analysis
EKC
Sustainable-Development
Emisiones-Energía
Identidad-Kaya
Análisis-Descomposición
CKA
Desarrollo-Sostenible
description The consumption of energy and carbon emissions related income growths are a development challenge requiring analysis and policy insights. Several analysis of future change in economies relies on quantitative point forecasts within which accuracy is difficult to achieve. A System Dynamics (SD) model based on scenario analysis approach has been built for Ecuador within the medium term (up to 2025). This research applied a combination of decomposition analysis and scenario analysis to identify and analyze the driving forces of change of CO2 emissions in Ecuador, historically from 1980-2010 and in the coming future to 2025. The historical decomposition used the LMDI technique and was further quantified to 2025 using an integrated qualitative and quantitative scenario approach to explore plausible alternative developments. The historical analysis gives insights at macro and sectoral level to attribute change to a range of structural, scale, energy mix, and intensity effects. The macro decomposition was based on an extended Kaya identity while the sectoral try to offers deeper insights. In addition a formation of GDP approach that depends on renewable energy, which introduces a feedback mechanism in the model and allows us to generate a non-trivial evolution of the system has been introduced in the model building. The four scenarios show divergence in emissions trajectories based on alternative development paths. In particular, it was paid special attention to the effect of a reduction of the share of fossil energy, as well as of an improvement in the efficiency of the fossil energy use. The outcomes estimated are in absolute emission totals but also in sectoral contribution. In a deeper analysis of the model outcome, we has studied the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for Ecuador in a forthcoming period, 2011-2025 using the proposed scenarios. Our proposal goes a step further than previous contributions, and intends to see under which conditions a country could approach the fulfillment of this hypothesis in the medium term. The results do not support the fulfillment of the EKC, nevertheless, the estimations show that Ecuador could be on the way to achieving environmental stabilization in the near future. Indeed, our estimates show that Ecuador could be able to enter the area of environmental stability (second stage of the EKC) in the medium term (2019-2021). However, to achieve this goal it is essential to implement policies that allow the diversification of energy sources and to increase energy efficiency in the productive sectors in order to get more sustainable development. The final conclusion of this work suggests that emissions can evolve on higher or lower emissions trajectories based not only on the evolution of economic growth but on the evolution of the development path. Within the development path, economic growth interacts with governance and societal choices and the other driving forces.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014
2014-01-01
2014
2014-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv doctoral thesis
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
format doctoralThesis
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10272/8775
url http://hdl.handle.net/10272/8775
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Huelva
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Huelva
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
instname:Universidad de Huelva (UHU)
instname_str Universidad de Huelva (UHU)
reponame_str Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
collection Arias Montano. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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