Foreign Exchange Forecasting Models: ARIMA and LSTM Comparison

[EN] The prediction of currency prices is important for investors with foreign currency assets, both for speculation and for hedging the exchange rate risk. Classical time series models such as ARIMA models were relevant until the advent of neural networks. In particular, recurrent neural networks s...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: García García, Fernando|||0000-0001-6364-520X, Guijarro, Francisco|||0000-0002-8803-5165, Oliver-Muncharaz, Javier|||0000-0001-5317-6489, Tamosiuniene, Rima
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/212167
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/212167
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:ARIMA
LSTM
Foreign exchange prediction
ECONOMIA FINANCIERA Y CONTABILIDAD
Descripción
Sumario:[EN] The prediction of currency prices is important for investors with foreign currency assets, both for speculation and for hedging the exchange rate risk. Classical time series models such as ARIMA models were relevant until the advent of neural networks. In particular, recurrent neural networks such as long short-term memory (LSTM) are show to be a good alternative model for the prediction of short-term stock prices. In this paper, we present a comparison between the ARIMA model and LSTM neural network. A hybrid model that combines the two models is also presented. In addition, the effectiveness of this model on Bitcoin¿s future contract is analysed.