Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting

The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to...

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Authors: Fernández-Castillo, Pablo, Losada Doval, Teresa, Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén, García-Maroto, Diego, Mohino Harris, Elsa, Durán Montejano, Luis
Format: article
Publication Date:2025
Country:España
Institution:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repository:Docta Complutense
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/123778
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123778
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:551.5
Nino-Southern oscillation
North-Atlantic
El-Nino
Sea-Ice
Indian-ocean
Climate
Reanalysis
Pacific
Impacts
Region
Meteorología (Física)
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/123778
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecastingFernández-Castillo, PabloLosada Doval, TeresaRodríguez De Fonseca, María BelénGarcía-Maroto, DiegoMohino Harris, ElsaDurán Montejano, Luis551.5Nino-Southern oscillationNorth-AtlanticEl-NinoSea-IceIndian-oceanClimateReanalysisPacificImpactsRegionMeteorología (Física)2501 Ciencias de la AtmósferaThe impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected.Nature PotfolioUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20252025-01-0120252025-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123778reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1237782026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
title Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
spellingShingle Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
Fernández-Castillo, Pablo
551.5
Nino-Southern oscillation
North-Atlantic
El-Nino
Sea-Ice
Indian-ocean
Climate
Reanalysis
Pacific
Impacts
Region
Meteorología (Física)
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
title_short Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
title_full Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
title_fullStr Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
title_full_unstemmed Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
title_sort Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fernández-Castillo, Pablo
Losada Doval, Teresa
Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
García-Maroto, Diego
Mohino Harris, Elsa
Durán Montejano, Luis
author Fernández-Castillo, Pablo
author_facet Fernández-Castillo, Pablo
Losada Doval, Teresa
Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
García-Maroto, Diego
Mohino Harris, Elsa
Durán Montejano, Luis
author_role author
author2 Losada Doval, Teresa
Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
García-Maroto, Diego
Mohino Harris, Elsa
Durán Montejano, Luis
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 551.5
Nino-Southern oscillation
North-Atlantic
El-Nino
Sea-Ice
Indian-ocean
Climate
Reanalysis
Pacific
Impacts
Region
Meteorología (Física)
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
topic 551.5
Nino-Southern oscillation
North-Atlantic
El-Nino
Sea-Ice
Indian-ocean
Climate
Reanalysis
Pacific
Impacts
Region
Meteorología (Física)
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
description The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-01-01
2025
2025-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123778
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123778
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Potfolio
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Potfolio
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869416236735004672
score 15,811543

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