Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics

Understanding virus mutations is critical for shaping public health interventions. These mutations lead to complex multi-strain dynamics often under-represented in models. Aiming to understand the factors influencing variants' fitness and evolution, we explore several scenarios of virus spreadi...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Saldaña, F., Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M.
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2024
Country:España
Institution:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
Repository:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
OAI Identifier:oai:bird.bcamath.org:20.500.11824/1954
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1954
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:asymptomatic transmission
COVID-19
disease importation
infectious disease modelling
mutations
spillover events
two-strain dynamics
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spelling Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamicsSaldaña, F.Stollenwerk, N.Aguiar, M.asymptomatic transmissionCOVID-19disease importationinfectious disease modellingmutationsspillover eventstwo-strain dynamicsUnderstanding virus mutations is critical for shaping public health interventions. These mutations lead to complex multi-strain dynamics often under-represented in models. Aiming to understand the factors influencing variants' fitness and evolution, we explore several scenarios of virus spreading to gain qualitative insight into the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate at the population level. To this end, we propose a two-strain stochastic model that accounts for asymptomatic transmission, mutations and the possibility of disease import. We find that variants with milder symptoms are likely to spread faster than those with severe symptoms. This is because severe variants can prompt affected individuals to seek medical help earlier, potentially leading to quicker identification and isolation of cases. However, milder or asymptomatic cases may spread more widely, making it harder to control the spread. Therefore, increased transmissibility of milder variants can still result in higher hospitalizations and fatalities due to widespread infection. The proposed model highlights the interplay between viral evolution and transmission dynamics. Offering a nuanced view of factors influencing variant spread, the model provides a foundation for further investigation into mitigating strategies and public health interventions.M.A. acknowledges the financial support by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion (MICINN) of the Spanish Government through the Ramon y Cajal grant RYC2021-0202520252024info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1954reponame:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Datainstname:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/CEX2021-001142-Sinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BMTF/info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BERC/BERC.2022-2025Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:bird.bcamath.org:20.500.11824/19542026-06-19T12:47:47Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
title Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
spellingShingle Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
Saldaña, F.
asymptomatic transmission
COVID-19
disease importation
infectious disease modelling
mutations
spillover events
two-strain dynamics
title_short Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
title_full Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
title_fullStr Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
title_sort Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: Understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Saldaña, F.
Stollenwerk, N.
Aguiar, M.
author Saldaña, F.
author_facet Saldaña, F.
Stollenwerk, N.
Aguiar, M.
author_role author
author2 Stollenwerk, N.
Aguiar, M.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv asymptomatic transmission
COVID-19
disease importation
infectious disease modelling
mutations
spillover events
two-strain dynamics
topic asymptomatic transmission
COVID-19
disease importation
infectious disease modelling
mutations
spillover events
two-strain dynamics
description Understanding virus mutations is critical for shaping public health interventions. These mutations lead to complex multi-strain dynamics often under-represented in models. Aiming to understand the factors influencing variants' fitness and evolution, we explore several scenarios of virus spreading to gain qualitative insight into the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate at the population level. To this end, we propose a two-strain stochastic model that accounts for asymptomatic transmission, mutations and the possibility of disease import. We find that variants with milder symptoms are likely to spread faster than those with severe symptoms. This is because severe variants can prompt affected individuals to seek medical help earlier, potentially leading to quicker identification and isolation of cases. However, milder or asymptomatic cases may spread more widely, making it harder to control the spread. Therefore, increased transmissibility of milder variants can still result in higher hospitalizations and fatalities due to widespread infection. The proposed model highlights the interplay between viral evolution and transmission dynamics. Offering a nuanced view of factors influencing variant spread, the model provides a foundation for further investigation into mitigating strategies and public health interventions.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1954
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1954
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/CEX2021-001142-S
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BMTF/
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BERC/BERC.2022-2025
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
instname:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
instname_str Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
reponame_str BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
collection BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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