A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations among various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution amongst ski resorts taking into account t...

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Autores: Pons Pons, Marc, Johnson, Peter A., Rosas Casals, Martí|||0000-0002-5243-2601, Jover Comas, Eric
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2014
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/23644
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/23644
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2014.933481
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Climatic changes -- Andorra -- Mathematical models
Winter sports -- Andorra -- Environmental impact
Climate change
Winter tourism
Adaptation
GIS
Agent based model
Canvis climàtics -- Andorra -- Models matemàtics
Esports d'hivern -- Andorra -- Impacte ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
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repository_id_str
spelling A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scalePons Pons, MarcJohnson, Peter A.Rosas Casals, Martí|||0000-0002-5243-2601Jover Comas, EricClimatic changes -- Andorra -- Mathematical modelsWinter sports -- Andorra -- Environmental impactClimate changeWinter tourismAdaptationGISAgent based modelCanvis climàtics -- Andorra -- Models matemàticsEsports d'hivern -- Andorra -- Impacte ambientalsÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàticOne main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations among various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution amongst ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agentbased model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attenda nce in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.Peer Reviewed20142014-06-3020142014-07-29journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/23644https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2014.933481reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/236442026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
title A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
spellingShingle A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
Pons Pons, Marc
Climatic changes -- Andorra -- Mathematical models
Winter sports -- Andorra -- Environmental impact
Climate change
Winter tourism
Adaptation
GIS
Agent based model
Canvis climàtics -- Andorra -- Models matemàtics
Esports d'hivern -- Andorra -- Impacte ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
title_short A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
title_full A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
title_fullStr A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
title_full_unstemmed A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
title_sort A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Pons Pons, Marc
Johnson, Peter A.
Rosas Casals, Martí|||0000-0002-5243-2601
Jover Comas, Eric
author Pons Pons, Marc
author_facet Pons Pons, Marc
Johnson, Peter A.
Rosas Casals, Martí|||0000-0002-5243-2601
Jover Comas, Eric
author_role author
author2 Johnson, Peter A.
Rosas Casals, Martí|||0000-0002-5243-2601
Jover Comas, Eric
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climatic changes -- Andorra -- Mathematical models
Winter sports -- Andorra -- Environmental impact
Climate change
Winter tourism
Adaptation
GIS
Agent based model
Canvis climàtics -- Andorra -- Models matemàtics
Esports d'hivern -- Andorra -- Impacte ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
topic Climatic changes -- Andorra -- Mathematical models
Winter sports -- Andorra -- Environmental impact
Climate change
Winter tourism
Adaptation
GIS
Agent based model
Canvis climàtics -- Andorra -- Models matemàtics
Esports d'hivern -- Andorra -- Impacte ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
description One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations among various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution amongst ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agentbased model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attenda nce in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014
2014-06-30
2014
2014-07-29
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/23644
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2014.933481
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/23644
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2014.933481
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,198674

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