Persistence in international prices of agricultural renewable commodities : a fractional integration approach

In this work, we have examined historical data of renewable commodity prices by looking at the order of integration of the series from a fractional perspective. Using historical data from 1900 to 2022, we look at international prices of banana, cocoa, cotton, tea, hides, jute, lamb, coffee, maize, t...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Solarin, Sakiru Adebola, Lafuente Ibáñez, María Carmen, Lafuente, Carmen, González Blanch, María Jesús, Gil-Alana, Luis A., Gil Alana, Luis A., González-Blanch, María Jesús
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universidad Francisco de Vitoria
Repositorio:DDFV. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Francisco de Vitoria
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddfv.ufv.es:10641/6623
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10641/6623
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Agriculture
Fractional integration
Mean reversion
Persistence
Prices
Renewable commodities
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Psychology (miscellaneous)
Decision Sciences (miscellaneous)
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
Yes
yes
Descripción
Sumario:In this work, we have examined historical data of renewable commodity prices by looking at the order of integration of the series from a fractional perspective. Using historical data from 1900 to 2022, we look at international prices of banana, cocoa, cotton, tea, hides, jute, lamb, coffee, maize, timber, beef, rubber, palm oil, rice, wheat, sugar, and wool. The empirical findings support the hypothesis of fractional integration and mean reversion in all cases, since the integration orders are all within the interval (0, 1). The lowest degree of persistence occurs in the cases of wheat, sugar, palm oil and maize, implying that shocks in these commodities disappear relatively fast. A unique break is permitted in the series and in most cases the break takes place during the 80s, and the only significant change in persistence is observed in lamb. A policy implication of the results is the need for buffer funds or buffer stock to decrease the impacts of volatility of the international agricultural renewable commodities on export returns.