On the distribution of bids for construction contract auctions
[EN] The statistical distribution representing bid values constitutes an essential part of many auction models and has involved a wide range of assumptions, including the Uniform, Normal, Lognormal and Weibull densities. From a modelling point of view, its goodness is defined by how well it enables...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2017 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) |
| Repositorio: | RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/193270 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/193270 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Modelling Forecasting Bidding Tendering Probability distribution Fréchet Log-Normal PROYECTOS DE INGENIERIA |
| Sumario: | [EN] The statistical distribution representing bid values constitutes an essential part of many auction models and has involved a wide range of assumptions, including the Uniform, Normal, Lognormal and Weibull densities. From a modelling point of view, its goodness is defined by how well it enables the probability of a particular bid value to be estimated ¿ a past bid for ex-post analysis and a future bid for ex-ante (forecasting) analysis. However, there is no agreement to date of what is the most appropriate form and empirical work is sparse. Twelve extant construction data-sets from four continents over different time periods are analysed in this paper for their fit to a variety of candidate statistical distributions assuming homogeneity of bidders (ID not known). The results show there is no one single fit-all distribution, but that the 3p Log-Normal, Fréchet/2p Log-Normal, Normal, Gamma and Gumbel generally rank the best ex-post and the 2p Log-Normal, Normal, Gamma and Gumbel the best ex-ante ¿ with ex-ante having around three to four times worse fit than ex-post. Final comments focus on the results relating to the third and fourth standardized moments of the bids and a post hoc rationalization of the empirical outcome of the analysis. |
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