Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia

17 Pags.- 6 Figs.- 3 Tabls. Data S1 Supporting information. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License.

Bibliographic Details
Authors: Barrio, Ricardo del, Fernandez, Eduardo, Brendel, Andrea S., Whitney, Cory, Campoy, José Antonio, Luedeling, Eike
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2021
Country:España
Institution:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repository:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/366536
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/366536
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:chill models
chill requirement
heat requirement
Prunus sp.
spring frost risk
temperate trees
warm winters
plums
climatic factors
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spelling Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North PatagoniaBarrio, Ricardo delFernandez, EduardoBrendel, Andrea S.Whitney, CoryCampoy, José AntonioLuedeling, Eikechill modelschill requirementheat requirementPrunus sp.spring frost risktemperate treeswarm wintersplumsclimatic factors17 Pags.- 6 Figs.- 3 Tabls. Data S1 Supporting information. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License.Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.Peer reviewedRoyal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)Campoy, José Antonio [0000-0002-6018-5698]202420242021info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/366536reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)InglésThe underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6649Noinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3665362026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
spellingShingle Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
Barrio, Ricardo del
chill models
chill requirement
heat requirement
Prunus sp.
spring frost risk
temperate trees
warm winters
plums
climatic factors
title_short Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_full Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_fullStr Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_full_unstemmed Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_sort Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Barrio, Ricardo del
Fernandez, Eduardo
Brendel, Andrea S.
Whitney, Cory
Campoy, José Antonio
Luedeling, Eike
author Barrio, Ricardo del
author_facet Barrio, Ricardo del
Fernandez, Eduardo
Brendel, Andrea S.
Whitney, Cory
Campoy, José Antonio
Luedeling, Eike
author_role author
author2 Fernandez, Eduardo
Brendel, Andrea S.
Whitney, Cory
Campoy, José Antonio
Luedeling, Eike
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Campoy, José Antonio [0000-0002-6018-5698]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv chill models
chill requirement
heat requirement
Prunus sp.
spring frost risk
temperate trees
warm winters
plums
climatic factors
topic chill models
chill requirement
heat requirement
Prunus sp.
spring frost risk
temperate trees
warm winters
plums
climatic factors
description 17 Pags.- 6 Figs.- 3 Tabls. Data S1 Supporting information. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2024
2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/366536
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/366536
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6649
No
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869416066068774912
score 15,811543

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