A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring: comparative analysis of the initial phase
This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected individuals at some rate so-called preventive rewiring. The models are denoted SIR- and SEIR- and we focus attention on the early stages of an outbreak, where we...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2017 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ddd.uab.cat:182503 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://ddd.uab.cat/record/182503 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1007/s11538-016-0227-4 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Branching process Network epidemic models Pair approximation Preventive rewiring |
| Sumario: | This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected individuals at some rate so-called preventive rewiring. The models are denoted SIR- and SEIR- and we focus attention on the early stages of an outbreak, where we derive expression for the basic reproduction number R_0 and the expected degree of the infectious nodes E(D_I) using two different approximation approaches. The first approach approximates the early spread of an epidemic by a branching process, whereas the second one uses pair approximation. The expressions are compared with the corresponding empirical means obtained from stochastic simulations of SIR- and SEIR- epidemics on Poisson and scale-free networks. For SIR- and the SEIR- case without rewiring of exposed nodes, both approaches predict the same epidemic threshold and the same E(D_I), the latter being very close to the observed mean degree D_I in simulated epidemics over Poisson networks. Above the epidemic threshold, pairwise models overestimate the value of R_0 obtained from the simulations, which turns out to be very close to the one predicted by the branching process approximation. For SEIR- where exposed individuals also rewire (perhaps unaware of being infected), the two approaches give different epidemic thresholds, with the branching process approximation being more in agreement with simulations. |
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