Mixtures of t-distributions for finance and forecasting

We explore convenient analytic properties of distributions constructed as mixtures of scaled and shifted t-distributions. Particularly desirable for econometric applications are closed-form expressions for antiderivatives (e.g., the cumulative density function). We illustrate the usefulness of these...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Giacomini, R., Gottschling, A., Haefke, Christian, White, Halbert
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2008
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/58072
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/58072
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:ddc:330
jel:C45
jel:C63
jel:C53
Descripción
Sumario:We explore convenient analytic properties of distributions constructed as mixtures of scaled and shifted t-distributions. Particularly desirable for econometric applications are closed-form expressions for antiderivatives (e.g., the cumulative density function). We illustrate the usefulness of these distributions in two applications. In the first application, we produce density forecasts of U.S. inflation and show that these forecasts are more accurate, out-of-sample, than density forecasts obtained using normal or standard t-distributions. In the second application, we replicate the option-pricing exercise of Abadir and Rockinger [Density functionals, with an option-pricing application. Econometric Theory 19, 778-811.] and obtain comparably good results, while gaining analytical tractability. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.