The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination

In this paper, we test three popular versions of the monetary model (flexible price, forward-looking and real interest differential models) for the OECD member countries by applying Johansen cointegration technique. Based on country-by-country analysis, we conclude that monetary models do not provid...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Afat, Dinçer, Gómez-Puig, Marta, Sosvilla Rivero, Simón Javier
Formato: informe técnico
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/27500
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/27500
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:F31
F41
Exchange rate
Flexible price monetary model
Forward-looking monetary model
Real interest differential model
Money demand
Purchasing power parity
Econometría (Economía)
Economía internacional
Finanzas
5302 Econometría
5310 Economía Internacional
Descrição
Resumo:In this paper, we test three popular versions of the monetary model (flexible price, forward-looking and real interest differential models) for the OECD member countries by applying Johansen cointegration technique. Based on country-by-country analysis, we conclude that monetary models do not provide the expected results. We reveal several shortcomings of the models and examine the building blocks of the fundamental version. Although researchers always blame the deviations from purchasing power parity as the reason for the failure of the monetary model, our analysis indicates that invalidity of Keynesian money demand function is also responsible for unfavourable results.