Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change

Air pollution is a major environmental threat to human health. Pollutants can reach extreme levels in the lower atmosphere when weather conditions permit. As pollutant concentrations depend on scales and processes that are not fully represented in current global circulation models (GCMs), and it is...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Maddison, Jacob William, Ábalos Álvarez, Marta, Barriopedro Cepero, David, García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco, Garrido Pérez, José Manuel, Ordóñez García, Carlos, Simpson, Isla
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/91051
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91051
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:551.51
Física atmosférica
2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica
2509.02 Contaminación Atmosférica
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spelling Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate ChangeMaddison, Jacob WilliamÁbalos Álvarez, MartaBarriopedro Cepero, DavidGarcía Herrera, Ricardo FranciscoGarrido Pérez, José ManuelOrdóñez García, CarlosSimpson, Isla551.51Física atmosférica2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica2509.02 Contaminación AtmosféricaAir pollution is a major environmental threat to human health. Pollutants can reach extreme levels in the lower atmosphere when weather conditions permit. As pollutant concentrations depend on scales and processes that are not fully represented in current global circulation models (GCMs), and it is often too computationally expensive to run models with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol processes, air stagnation is often used as a proxy for pollution events with particular success in Europe. However, the variables required to identify air stagnation can have biases in GCM output, which adds uncertainty to projected trends in air stagnation. Here, the representation of air stagnation in GCMs is assessed for Europe in the historical period and in end-of-century projections based on a high-emission scenario using three methods for identifying air stagnation. The monthly frequency of stagnation during summer and autumn is projected to increase with climate change when stagnation is identified by a well-established index. However, this increase is not present when air-stagnation frequency is estimated using a statistical model based on the synoptic- to large-scale atmospheric circulation. This implies that the projected increases in air stagnation are not driven by an increase in frequency or severity of large-scale circulation events that are conducive to stagnation. Indeed, projected changes to the atmospheric circulation in GCMs, in particular a reduction in atmospheric block frequency, would suggest a reduction in future air stagnation. Additional analyses indicate that the projected increases in stagnation frequency follow the trend toward more frequent dry days, which is apparently unrelated to the large-scale drivers of air stagnation.American Meteorological SocietyUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20232023-01-0120232023-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91051reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)InglésengMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 STEADY CGL2017-83198-RMICIU Not available RTI2018-096402-B-I00open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/910512026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
title Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
spellingShingle Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
Maddison, Jacob William
551.51
Física atmosférica
2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica
2509.02 Contaminación Atmosférica
title_short Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
title_full Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
title_fullStr Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
title_sort Assessing the Projected Changes in European Air Stagnation due to Climate Change
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Maddison, Jacob William
Ábalos Álvarez, Marta
Barriopedro Cepero, David
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
Garrido Pérez, José Manuel
Ordóñez García, Carlos
Simpson, Isla
author Maddison, Jacob William
author_facet Maddison, Jacob William
Ábalos Álvarez, Marta
Barriopedro Cepero, David
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
Garrido Pérez, José Manuel
Ordóñez García, Carlos
Simpson, Isla
author_role author
author2 Ábalos Álvarez, Marta
Barriopedro Cepero, David
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
Garrido Pérez, José Manuel
Ordóñez García, Carlos
Simpson, Isla
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 551.51
Física atmosférica
2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica
2509.02 Contaminación Atmosférica
topic 551.51
Física atmosférica
2501.06 Dinámica Atmosférica
2509.02 Contaminación Atmosférica
description Air pollution is a major environmental threat to human health. Pollutants can reach extreme levels in the lower atmosphere when weather conditions permit. As pollutant concentrations depend on scales and processes that are not fully represented in current global circulation models (GCMs), and it is often too computationally expensive to run models with atmospheric chemistry and aerosol processes, air stagnation is often used as a proxy for pollution events with particular success in Europe. However, the variables required to identify air stagnation can have biases in GCM output, which adds uncertainty to projected trends in air stagnation. Here, the representation of air stagnation in GCMs is assessed for Europe in the historical period and in end-of-century projections based on a high-emission scenario using three methods for identifying air stagnation. The monthly frequency of stagnation during summer and autumn is projected to increase with climate change when stagnation is identified by a well-established index. However, this increase is not present when air-stagnation frequency is estimated using a statistical model based on the synoptic- to large-scale atmospheric circulation. This implies that the projected increases in air stagnation are not driven by an increase in frequency or severity of large-scale circulation events that are conducive to stagnation. Indeed, projected changes to the atmospheric circulation in GCMs, in particular a reduction in atmospheric block frequency, would suggest a reduction in future air stagnation. Additional analyses indicate that the projected increases in stagnation frequency follow the trend toward more frequent dry days, which is apparently unrelated to the large-scale drivers of air stagnation.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023-01-01
2023
2023-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91051
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91051
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 STEADY CGL2017-83198-R
MICIU Not available RTI2018-096402-B-I00
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,81155

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