Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer
The aim of the current study is to analyze the effects of red and yellow cards on the scoring rate in elite soccer. The sample was composed of 1826 matches in the top five European leagues. All events were structured in 5-min intervals and were analyzed by means of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model w...
| Autores: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2022 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| Repositorio: | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:recercat.cat:2072/537112 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/2072/537112 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Generalized linear mixed model Performance analysis Poisson distribution Red and yellow cards Soccer |
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Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccerBadiella, L.Puig, P.Lago-Peñas, C.Casals, M.Generalized linear mixed modelPerformance analysisPoisson distributionRed and yellow cardsSoccerThe aim of the current study is to analyze the effects of red and yellow cards on the scoring rate in elite soccer. The sample was composed of 1826 matches in the top five European leagues. All events were structured in 5-min intervals and were analyzed by means of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with Poisson distribution, considering the presence of correlated data, where the dependent variable is represented by scoring rate. Team strength and home advantage were considered implicitly by means of a transformation of the betting odds for each game. The model also took into account the goal difference and time evolution. Overall, we found that after a sending off, each team’s scoring rate changes significantly, damaging the penalised team and favouring its opponent. When the player who is sent off belongs to the Away team, the impact of a red card is more or less maintained over time intervals. The red card effect, on the other hand, tends to fade over time when the affected team is stronger. The relative difference in scoring rates is also affected by the goal difference and the difference in booked players, being slightly lower for the team going ahead if it has more booked players. Our approach allows estimating the expected cumulative soring rate through time for various red card scenarios. Particularly if a red card is given with 30 min of remaining time, the expected impact is 0.39 goals if the guilty player is on the visiting team and 0.50 if he plays for the home team. Coaches and analysts could use this information to establish objectives for players and teams in training and matches and to be prepared for these very different scenarios of numerical superiority or inferiority. © 2022, The Author(s).Open Access Funding provided by Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. This work was partiallyfunded by the grants RTI2018-096072-B-I00 and PID2019-104830RB-I00/AEI DOI:10.13039/501100011033 from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, and the Severo Ochoaand María de Maeztu Program for Centers and Units of Excellence in R&D (CEX2020-001084-M) from theSpanish Research Agency.Springer2022info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion17 p.application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/2072/537112RECERCAT (Dipòsit de la Recerca de Catalunya)reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésAnnals of Operations ResearchL'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:recercat.cat:2072/5371122026-05-29T05:05:01Z |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer |
| title |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer |
| spellingShingle |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer Badiella, L. Generalized linear mixed model Performance analysis Poisson distribution Red and yellow cards Soccer |
| title_short |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer |
| title_full |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer |
| title_fullStr |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer |
| title_sort |
Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Badiella, L. Puig, P. Lago-Peñas, C. Casals, M. |
| author |
Badiella, L. |
| author_facet |
Badiella, L. Puig, P. Lago-Peñas, C. Casals, M. |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Puig, P. Lago-Peñas, C. Casals, M. |
| author2_role |
author author author |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Generalized linear mixed model Performance analysis Poisson distribution Red and yellow cards Soccer |
| topic |
Generalized linear mixed model Performance analysis Poisson distribution Red and yellow cards Soccer |
| description |
The aim of the current study is to analyze the effects of red and yellow cards on the scoring rate in elite soccer. The sample was composed of 1826 matches in the top five European leagues. All events were structured in 5-min intervals and were analyzed by means of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with Poisson distribution, considering the presence of correlated data, where the dependent variable is represented by scoring rate. Team strength and home advantage were considered implicitly by means of a transformation of the betting odds for each game. The model also took into account the goal difference and time evolution. Overall, we found that after a sending off, each team’s scoring rate changes significantly, damaging the penalised team and favouring its opponent. When the player who is sent off belongs to the Away team, the impact of a red card is more or less maintained over time intervals. The red card effect, on the other hand, tends to fade over time when the affected team is stronger. The relative difference in scoring rates is also affected by the goal difference and the difference in booked players, being slightly lower for the team going ahead if it has more booked players. Our approach allows estimating the expected cumulative soring rate through time for various red card scenarios. Particularly if a red card is given with 30 min of remaining time, the expected impact is 0.39 goals if the guilty player is on the visiting team and 0.50 if he plays for the home team. Coaches and analysts could use this information to establish objectives for players and teams in training and matches and to be prepared for these very different scenarios of numerical superiority or inferiority. © 2022, The Author(s). |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/2072/537112 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/2072/537112 |
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Inglés |
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Inglés |
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Annals of Operations Research |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
17 p. application/pdf |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
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Springer |
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RECERCAT (Dipòsit de la Recerca de Catalunya) reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
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Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
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Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
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Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
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