Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds

In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to...

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Autores: Ciaravino, G., García-Saenz, A., Cabras, S., Allepuz, A., Casal, J., García-Bocanegra, I., De Koeijer, A., Gubbins, S., Sáez, J.L., Cano-Terriza, D., Napp, S.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:20.500.12327/128
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12327/128
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:619
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spelling Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herdsCiaravino, G.García-Saenz, A.Cabras, S.Allepuz, A.Casal, J.García-Bocanegra, I.De Koeijer, A.Gubbins, S.Sáez, J.L.Cano-Terriza, D.Napp, S.619In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the “Within-herd transmission potential Number” (Rh), i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the transmission coefficient (β), 0.014 newly infected animals per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the rate at which infected individuals become infectious (α), 0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97 days), and for the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the skin test (α1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of 12 days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of those parameters (in particular β and α) among the 22 herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1 year, and to 2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years, respectively.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionElsevierProducció AnimalSanitat Animal2018info:eu-repo/semantics/article11http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12327/128https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésEpidemicsMINECO/Programa Estatal de I+D+I orientada a los retos de la sociedad/AGL2013-49159-C2-1-R/ES/EPIDEMIOLOGIA DE LA TUBERCULOSIS BOVINA EN ESPAÑA: FACTORES DE RIESGO, ASPECTOS SOCIOLOGICOS, IMPLICACION DE OTRAS ESPECIES DOMESTICAS Y EFICACIA DE LAS MEDIDAS DE CONTROL/Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:recercat.cat:20.500.12327/1282026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
spellingShingle Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
Ciaravino, G.
619
title_short Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_full Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_fullStr Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_sort Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ciaravino, G.
García-Saenz, A.
Cabras, S.
Allepuz, A.
Casal, J.
García-Bocanegra, I.
De Koeijer, A.
Gubbins, S.
Sáez, J.L.
Cano-Terriza, D.
Napp, S.
author Ciaravino, G.
author_facet Ciaravino, G.
García-Saenz, A.
Cabras, S.
Allepuz, A.
Casal, J.
García-Bocanegra, I.
De Koeijer, A.
Gubbins, S.
Sáez, J.L.
Cano-Terriza, D.
Napp, S.
author_role author
author2 García-Saenz, A.
Cabras, S.
Allepuz, A.
Casal, J.
García-Bocanegra, I.
De Koeijer, A.
Gubbins, S.
Sáez, J.L.
Cano-Terriza, D.
Napp, S.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Producció Animal
Sanitat Animal
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 619
topic 619
description In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the “Within-herd transmission potential Number” (Rh), i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the transmission coefficient (β), 0.014 newly infected animals per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the rate at which infected individuals become infectious (α), 0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97 days), and for the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the skin test (α1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of 12 days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of those parameters (in particular β and α) among the 22 herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1 year, and to 2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years, respectively.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12327/128
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12327/128
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Epidemics
MINECO/Programa Estatal de I+D+I orientada a los retos de la sociedad/AGL2013-49159-C2-1-R/ES/EPIDEMIOLOGIA DE LA TUBERCULOSIS BOVINA EN ESPAÑA: FACTORES DE RIESGO, ASPECTOS SOCIOLOGICOS, IMPLICACION DE OTRAS ESPECIES DOMESTICAS Y EFICACIA DE LAS MEDIDAS DE CONTROL/
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 11
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.811543

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