Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model

In a recent study, Coppola et al. assessed the ability of an ensemble of convection-permitting models (CPM) to simulate deep convection using three case studies. The ensemble exhibited strong discrepancies between models, which were attributed to various factors. In order to shed some light on the i...

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Autores: Lavín Gullón, Álvaro|||0000-0003-4254-9651, Fernández Fernández, Jesús (matemático)|||0000-0002-3483-0008, Bastin, Sophie, Cardoso, Rita Margarida, Fita Borrell, Lluís, Giannaros, Theodore M., Goergen, Klaus, Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Lorenz, Torge, Milovac, Josipa|||0000-0001-5648-5279, Soares, Pedro M. M., Sobolowski, Stefan, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
Repositorio:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/21134
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10902/21134
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Internal variability
Regional climate models
Uncertainty
Physical parameterizations
Ensemble
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repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
title Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
spellingShingle Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
Lavín Gullón, Álvaro|||0000-0003-4254-9651
Internal variability
Regional climate models
Uncertainty
Physical parameterizations
Ensemble
title_short Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
title_full Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
title_fullStr Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
title_full_unstemmed Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
title_sort Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate model
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lavín Gullón, Álvaro|||0000-0003-4254-9651
Fernández Fernández, Jesús (matemático)|||0000-0002-3483-0008
Bastin, Sophie
Cardoso, Rita Margarida
Fita Borrell, Lluís
Giannaros, Theodore M.
Goergen, Klaus
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Kartsios, Stergios
Katragkou, Eleni
Lorenz, Torge
Milovac, Josipa|||0000-0001-5648-5279
Soares, Pedro M. M.
Sobolowski, Stefan
Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten
author Lavín Gullón, Álvaro|||0000-0003-4254-9651
author_facet Lavín Gullón, Álvaro|||0000-0003-4254-9651
Fernández Fernández, Jesús (matemático)|||0000-0002-3483-0008
Bastin, Sophie
Cardoso, Rita Margarida
Fita Borrell, Lluís
Giannaros, Theodore M.
Goergen, Klaus
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Kartsios, Stergios
Katragkou, Eleni
Lorenz, Torge
Milovac, Josipa|||0000-0001-5648-5279
Soares, Pedro M. M.
Sobolowski, Stefan
Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten
author_role author
author2 Fernández Fernández, Jesús (matemático)|||0000-0002-3483-0008
Bastin, Sophie
Cardoso, Rita Margarida
Fita Borrell, Lluís
Giannaros, Theodore M.
Goergen, Klaus
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
Kartsios, Stergios
Katragkou, Eleni
Lorenz, Torge
Milovac, Josipa|||0000-0001-5648-5279
Soares, Pedro M. M.
Sobolowski, Stefan
Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Cantabria
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Internal variability
Regional climate models
Uncertainty
Physical parameterizations
Ensemble
topic Internal variability
Regional climate models
Uncertainty
Physical parameterizations
Ensemble
description In a recent study, Coppola et al. assessed the ability of an ensemble of convection-permitting models (CPM) to simulate deep convection using three case studies. The ensemble exhibited strong discrepancies between models, which were attributed to various factors. In order to shed some light on the issue, we quantify in this article the uncertainty associated to different physical parameterizations from that of using different initial conditions, often referred to as the internal variability. For this purpose, we establish a framework to quantify both signals and we compare them for upper atmospheric circulation and near-surface variables. The analysis is carried out in the context of the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean, in which the intermediate RCM WRF simulations that serve to drive the CPM are run several times with different parameterizations. For atmospheric circulation (geopotential height), the sensitivity induced by multi?physics and the internal variability show comparable magnitudes and a similar spatial distribution pattern. For 2-m temperature and 10-m wind, the simulations with different parameterizations show larger differences than those launched with different initial conditions. The systematic effect over one year shows distinct patterns for the multi-physics and the internal variability. Therefore, the general lesson of this study is that internal variability should be analysed in order to properly distinguish the impact of other sources of uncertainty, especially for short-term sensitivity simulations.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-18
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
NA
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10902/21134
url http://hdl.handle.net/10902/21134
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley and Sons Ltd
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley and Sons Ltd
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Int. J Climatol. 2021; 41 (Suppl. 1): E656-E671
reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
instname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
instname_str Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
reponame_str UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
collection UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling Internal variability versus multi-physics uncertainty in a regional climate modelLavín Gullón, Álvaro|||0000-0003-4254-9651Fernández Fernández, Jesús (matemático)|||0000-0002-3483-0008Bastin, SophieCardoso, Rita MargaridaFita Borrell, LluísGiannaros, Theodore M.Goergen, KlausGutiérrez Llorente, José ManuelKartsios, StergiosKatragkou, EleniLorenz, TorgeMilovac, Josipa|||0000-0001-5648-5279Soares, Pedro M. M.Sobolowski, StefanWarrach-Sagi, KirstenInternal variabilityRegional climate modelsUncertaintyPhysical parameterizationsEnsembleIn a recent study, Coppola et al. assessed the ability of an ensemble of convection-permitting models (CPM) to simulate deep convection using three case studies. The ensemble exhibited strong discrepancies between models, which were attributed to various factors. In order to shed some light on the issue, we quantify in this article the uncertainty associated to different physical parameterizations from that of using different initial conditions, often referred to as the internal variability. For this purpose, we establish a framework to quantify both signals and we compare them for upper atmospheric circulation and near-surface variables. The analysis is carried out in the context of the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean, in which the intermediate RCM WRF simulations that serve to drive the CPM are run several times with different parameterizations. For atmospheric circulation (geopotential height), the sensitivity induced by multi?physics and the internal variability show comparable magnitudes and a similar spatial distribution pattern. For 2-m temperature and 10-m wind, the simulations with different parameterizations show larger differences than those launched with different initial conditions. The systematic effect over one year shows distinct patterns for the multi-physics and the internal variability. Therefore, the general lesson of this study is that internal variability should be analysed in order to properly distinguish the impact of other sources of uncertainty, especially for short-term sensitivity simulations.This work is partially funded by the Spanish government through grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/ FEDER co-funded projects INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). Universidad de Cantabria simulations have been carried out on the Altamira Supercomputer at the Instituto de F´ısica de Cantabria (IFCA-CSIC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. EK and SK acknowledge the support of the Greek Research and Technology Network (GRNET) High Performance Computing (HPC) infrastructure for providing the computational resources of AUTH-simulations (under project ID pr003005) and the AUTH Scientific Computing Center for technical support. IPSL acknowledges the support from the EUCP project, funded by the European Union under H2020 Grant Agreement 776613, and from the IPSL mesocenter ESPRI facility which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL, CNES and Ecole Polytechnique. IPSL simulations were granted access to the HPC resources of TGCC 19 under the allocation A0050106877 made by GENCI. The computational resources for NORCE/BCCR were provided by UNINETT Sigma2 (NN9280K, NS9001K), with funding from the Research Council of Norway’s support for the strategic project on climate services. FZJ gratefully acknowledges the computing time granted by the John von Neumann Institute for Computing (NIC) and JARA-HPC provided on the supercomputer JURECA at J¨ulich Supercomputing Centre (JSC). We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project UERRA (https://www.uerra.eu) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://eca.knmi.nl).John Wiley and Sons LtdUniversidad de Cantabria20212021-01-18journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501NAhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10902/21134Int. J Climatol. 2021; 41 (Suppl. 1): E656-E671reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabriainstname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/211342026-06-02T12:39:31Z
score 15,301603

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