The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?

1. We model the effect of annual weather conditions on lesser kestrel Falco naumanni breeding success in South-western Spain. Models indicate that rainfall is a good predictor of breeding success and has in general a positive effect on reproduction. 2. Rainfall and temperature in spring, during the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Rodríguez, Carlos, Bustamante, Javier
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2003
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/47046
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/47046
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Breeding success
Falco naumanni
NAO
predictive models
rainfall
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repository_id_str
spelling The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?Rodríguez, CarlosBustamante, JavierBreeding successFalco naumanniNAOpredictive modelsrainfall1. We model the effect of annual weather conditions on lesser kestrel Falco naumanni breeding success in South-western Spain. Models indicate that rainfall is a good predictor of breeding success and has in general a positive effect on reproduction. 2. Rainfall and temperature in spring, during the courtship period, influence colony occupancy rate. Mean minimum temperatures have a positive effect on nest occupation while the relationship between occupation and rainfall is curvilinear with an optimum around 84 mm. 3. Nest success rate is influenced positively by rainfall in winter and negatively by rainfall during the nestling period. 4. The mean number of chicks per successful nest is positively influenced by rainfall during the winter, arrival, courtship, and incubation periods. Rainfall during these periods explains 35% of the variance in this breeding parameter. 5. Nestling body condition is affected positively by rainfall during the courtship and incubation periods. 6. Models that consider the amount of rainfall at each colony in periods defined by the breeding phenology of the lesser kestrel outperform those based on total annual rainfall or on winter NAO-index. 7. Although rainfall in spring has declined significantly since 1966, retrospective pre- dictions of lesser kestrel population growth rate at our colonies indicate that the effect of climate change on breeding success cannot be held responsible for the historical population declinePeer reviewedBlackwell Publishing201220122003info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://hdl.handle.net/10261/47046reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1365-2656.2003.00757.x/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/470462026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
title The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
spellingShingle The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
Rodríguez, Carlos
Breeding success
Falco naumanni
NAO
predictive models
rainfall
title_short The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
title_full The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
title_fullStr The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
title_full_unstemmed The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
title_sort The effect of weather on lesser kestrel breeding success: can climate change explain historical population declines?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Rodríguez, Carlos
Bustamante, Javier
author Rodríguez, Carlos
author_facet Rodríguez, Carlos
Bustamante, Javier
author_role author
author2 Bustamante, Javier
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Breeding success
Falco naumanni
NAO
predictive models
rainfall
topic Breeding success
Falco naumanni
NAO
predictive models
rainfall
description 1. We model the effect of annual weather conditions on lesser kestrel Falco naumanni breeding success in South-western Spain. Models indicate that rainfall is a good predictor of breeding success and has in general a positive effect on reproduction. 2. Rainfall and temperature in spring, during the courtship period, influence colony occupancy rate. Mean minimum temperatures have a positive effect on nest occupation while the relationship between occupation and rainfall is curvilinear with an optimum around 84 mm. 3. Nest success rate is influenced positively by rainfall in winter and negatively by rainfall during the nestling period. 4. The mean number of chicks per successful nest is positively influenced by rainfall during the winter, arrival, courtship, and incubation periods. Rainfall during these periods explains 35% of the variance in this breeding parameter. 5. Nestling body condition is affected positively by rainfall during the courtship and incubation periods. 6. Models that consider the amount of rainfall at each colony in periods defined by the breeding phenology of the lesser kestrel outperform those based on total annual rainfall or on winter NAO-index. 7. Although rainfall in spring has declined significantly since 1966, retrospective pre- dictions of lesser kestrel population growth rate at our colonies indicate that the effect of climate change on breeding success cannot be held responsible for the historical population decline
publishDate 2003
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2003
2012
2012
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/47046
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/47046
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1365-2656.2003.00757.x/pdf
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Blackwell Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Blackwell Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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