Integrating long-term economic scenarios into peak load forecasting: An application to Spain
The treatment of trend components in electricity demand is critical for long-term peak load forecasting. When forecasting high frequency variables, like daily or hourly loads, a typical problem is how to make long-term scenarios - regarding demographics, GDP growth, etc. - compatible with short-term...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2017 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad Autónoma de Madrid |
| Repositorio: | Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.uam.es:10486/705760 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/10486/705760 https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.08.113 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Load curve forecasting Long-term scenarios Peak load forecasting Temporal disaggregation Economía |
| Sumario: | The treatment of trend components in electricity demand is critical for long-term peak load forecasting. When forecasting high frequency variables, like daily or hourly loads, a typical problem is how to make long-term scenarios - regarding demographics, GDP growth, etc. - compatible with short-term projections. Traditional procedures that apply de-trending methods are unable to simulate forecasts under alternative long-term scenarios. On the other hand, existing models that allow for changes in long-term trends tend to be characterized by end-of-year discontinuities. In this paper a novel forecasting procedure is presented that improves upon these approaches and is able to combine long and short-term features by employing temporal disaggregation techniques. This method is applied to forecast electricity load for Spain and its performance is compared to that of a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs. Our proposed procedure is flexible enough to be applied to different scenarios based on alternative assumptions regarding both long-term trends as well as short-term projections |
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