How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study

This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Wildlife Conservation and Habitat Management in the Anthropocene

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Ferrer, Miguel, García-Macía, Jorge, Sánchez, Mar, Morandini, Virginia
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/412219
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/412219
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:PVA
Viability of population
Wind farm
Bird mortality
Neophron percnopterus
Prediction of population trajectories
Observed versus predicted population trajectories
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spelling How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case StudyFerrer, MiguelGarcía-Macía, JorgeSánchez, MarMorandini, VirginiaPVAViability of populationWind farmBird mortalityNeophron percnopterusPrediction of population trajectoriesObserved versus predicted population trajectoriesThis article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Wildlife Conservation and Habitat Management in the AnthropoceneIt is clear that scientists’ predictions must be rigorous and based on scientific evidence, but, even more, it is crucial to review scientific predictions after a reasonable time. However, predictions of published PVAs have rarely been contrasted with real populations’ trends over time. This is worrisome because this is the only way to keep learning and improve our ability to make more accurate predictions. In addition, conservation efforts can shift the initial predictions for the viability of threatened populations; thus, the evaluation of initial predictions becomes required over time. This is the case of the Egyptian vulture in Spain, where trajectories of real populations over the years differ from large-scale predictions. Its extinction in the Iberian Peninsula—due to mortality in wind farms, among other causes—was predicted by 2020, according to published viability analyses; yet, 14 years after this publication, not only did it not happen, but its national (and European) population remains stable and is even slightly increasing (+2.6%). These differences between predicted and observed trajectories of populations show the limitations of the simulations as a conservation tool and offer the opportunity to evaluate the used PVAs and the shortcomings that affected the assessment of the real trajectory of the species. With only four years of data available to simulate and generate 100-year predictions, along with the distribution and variance of mortality rates by collision in wind farms and an overestimation the number of pairs in risk areas, a clear relationship was assumed between predicted risk according to distances and the actual recorded mortality at wind farms, even though it is known that these are not closely related.Peer reviewedMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteFerrer, Miguel [0000-0003-0092-8450]Morandini, Virginia [0000-0003-0665-5713]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]2026202620252026info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/412219reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttps://doi.org/10.3390/biology14121743Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/4122192026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
title How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
spellingShingle How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
Ferrer, Miguel
PVA
Viability of population
Wind farm
Bird mortality
Neophron percnopterus
Prediction of population trajectories
Observed versus predicted population trajectories
title_short How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
title_full How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
title_fullStr How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
title_full_unstemmed How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
title_sort How Accurate Are Population Predictions? Wind Farms and Egyptian Vultures as a Case Study
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ferrer, Miguel
García-Macía, Jorge
Sánchez, Mar
Morandini, Virginia
author Ferrer, Miguel
author_facet Ferrer, Miguel
García-Macía, Jorge
Sánchez, Mar
Morandini, Virginia
author_role author
author2 García-Macía, Jorge
Sánchez, Mar
Morandini, Virginia
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ferrer, Miguel [0000-0003-0092-8450]
Morandini, Virginia [0000-0003-0665-5713]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PVA
Viability of population
Wind farm
Bird mortality
Neophron percnopterus
Prediction of population trajectories
Observed versus predicted population trajectories
topic PVA
Viability of population
Wind farm
Bird mortality
Neophron percnopterus
Prediction of population trajectories
Observed versus predicted population trajectories
description This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Wildlife Conservation and Habitat Management in the Anthropocene
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2026
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/412219
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/412219
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14121743
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869415319361028096
score 15,812429

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