Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults
Background: Previous prediction models for adiposity gain have not yet achieved sufficient predictive ability for clinical relevance. We investigated whether traditional and genetic factors accurately predict adiposity gain. Methods: A 5-year gain of ≥5% in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip rat...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2025 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/219458 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/219458 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Pes corporal Obesitat Epidemiologia Adults Body weight Obesity Epidemiology Adulthood |
| id |
ES_9f5e2c3e3690d11bc57ecae00c213ff0 |
|---|---|
| oai_identifier_str |
oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/219458 |
| network_acronym_str |
ES |
| network_name_str |
España |
| repository_id_str |
|
| spelling |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adultsAgudo Trigueros, AntonioPeruchet Noray, LaiaDimou, NikiCordova, ReynaldaFontvieille, EmmaJansana, AnnaGan, QuanBreeur, MarieBaurecht, HansjörgBohmann, PatriciaKonzok, JulianStein, Michael J.Dahm, Christina C.Zilhão, Nuno R.Mellemkjær, LeneTjønneland, AnneKaaks, RudolfKatzke, VerenaInan-Eroglu, ElifSchulze, Matthias B.Masala, GiovannaSieri, SabinaSimeon, VittorioMatullo, GiuseppeMolina Montes, EstherAmiano, PilarChirlaque, María DoloresGasque, AlbaAtkins, JoshuaSmith-Byrne, KarlFerrari, PietroViallon, VivianGunter, Marc J.Bonet Bonet, CatalinaFreisling, HeinzCarreras Torres, RobertPes corporalObesitatEpidemiologiaAdultsBody weightObesityEpidemiologyAdulthoodBackground: Previous prediction models for adiposity gain have not yet achieved sufficient predictive ability for clinical relevance. We investigated whether traditional and genetic factors accurately predict adiposity gain. Methods: A 5-year gain of ≥5% in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) from baseline were predicted in mid-late adulthood individuals (median of 55 years old at baseline). Proportional hazards models were fitted in 245,699 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to identify robust environmental predictors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 5 proxies of adiposity [BMI, WHR, and three body shape phenotypes (PCs)] were computed using genetic weights from an independent cohort (UK Biobank). Environmental and genetic models were validated in 29,953 EPIC participants. Findings: Environmental models presented a remarkable predictive ability (AUCBMI: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68-0.70; AUCWHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77). The genetic geographic distribution for WHR and PC1 (overall adiposity) showed higher predisposition in North than South Europe. Predictive ability of PRSs was null (AUC: ∼0.52) and did not improve when combined with environmental models. However, PRSs of BMI and PC1 showed some prediction ability for BMI gain from self-reported BMI at 20 years old to baseline observation (early adulthood) (AUC: 0.60-0.62). Interpretation: Our study indicates that environmental models to discriminate European individuals at higher risk of adiposity gain can be integrated in standard prevention protocols. PRSs may play a robust role in predicting adiposity gain at early rather than mid-late adulthood suggesting a more important role of genetic factors in this life period.Elsevier2025info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/219458Articles publicats en revistes (Ciències Clíniques)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105510EBioMedicine, 2025, vol. 111https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105510cc-by (c) Peruchet-Noray, L. et al., 2025http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/2194582026-05-27T06:46:51Z |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults |
| title |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults |
| spellingShingle |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults Agudo Trigueros, Antonio Pes corporal Obesitat Epidemiologia Adults Body weight Obesity Epidemiology Adulthood |
| title_short |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults |
| title_full |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults |
| title_fullStr |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults |
| title_sort |
Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Agudo Trigueros, Antonio Peruchet Noray, Laia Dimou, Niki Cordova, Reynalda Fontvieille, Emma Jansana, Anna Gan, Quan Breeur, Marie Baurecht, Hansjörg Bohmann, Patricia Konzok, Julian Stein, Michael J. Dahm, Christina C. Zilhão, Nuno R. Mellemkjær, Lene Tjønneland, Anne Kaaks, Rudolf Katzke, Verena Inan-Eroglu, Elif Schulze, Matthias B. Masala, Giovanna Sieri, Sabina Simeon, Vittorio Matullo, Giuseppe Molina Montes, Esther Amiano, Pilar Chirlaque, María Dolores Gasque, Alba Atkins, Joshua Smith-Byrne, Karl Ferrari, Pietro Viallon, Vivian Gunter, Marc J. Bonet Bonet, Catalina Freisling, Heinz Carreras Torres, Robert |
| author |
Agudo Trigueros, Antonio |
| author_facet |
Agudo Trigueros, Antonio Peruchet Noray, Laia Dimou, Niki Cordova, Reynalda Fontvieille, Emma Jansana, Anna Gan, Quan Breeur, Marie Baurecht, Hansjörg Bohmann, Patricia Konzok, Julian Stein, Michael J. Dahm, Christina C. Zilhão, Nuno R. Mellemkjær, Lene Tjønneland, Anne Kaaks, Rudolf Katzke, Verena Inan-Eroglu, Elif Schulze, Matthias B. Masala, Giovanna Sieri, Sabina Simeon, Vittorio Matullo, Giuseppe Molina Montes, Esther Amiano, Pilar Chirlaque, María Dolores Gasque, Alba Atkins, Joshua Smith-Byrne, Karl Ferrari, Pietro Viallon, Vivian Gunter, Marc J. Bonet Bonet, Catalina Freisling, Heinz Carreras Torres, Robert |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Peruchet Noray, Laia Dimou, Niki Cordova, Reynalda Fontvieille, Emma Jansana, Anna Gan, Quan Breeur, Marie Baurecht, Hansjörg Bohmann, Patricia Konzok, Julian Stein, Michael J. Dahm, Christina C. Zilhão, Nuno R. Mellemkjær, Lene Tjønneland, Anne Kaaks, Rudolf Katzke, Verena Inan-Eroglu, Elif Schulze, Matthias B. Masala, Giovanna Sieri, Sabina Simeon, Vittorio Matullo, Giuseppe Molina Montes, Esther Amiano, Pilar Chirlaque, María Dolores Gasque, Alba Atkins, Joshua Smith-Byrne, Karl Ferrari, Pietro Viallon, Vivian Gunter, Marc J. Bonet Bonet, Catalina Freisling, Heinz Carreras Torres, Robert |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Pes corporal Obesitat Epidemiologia Adults Body weight Obesity Epidemiology Adulthood |
| topic |
Pes corporal Obesitat Epidemiologia Adults Body weight Obesity Epidemiology Adulthood |
| description |
Background: Previous prediction models for adiposity gain have not yet achieved sufficient predictive ability for clinical relevance. We investigated whether traditional and genetic factors accurately predict adiposity gain. Methods: A 5-year gain of ≥5% in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) from baseline were predicted in mid-late adulthood individuals (median of 55 years old at baseline). Proportional hazards models were fitted in 245,699 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to identify robust environmental predictors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 5 proxies of adiposity [BMI, WHR, and three body shape phenotypes (PCs)] were computed using genetic weights from an independent cohort (UK Biobank). Environmental and genetic models were validated in 29,953 EPIC participants. Findings: Environmental models presented a remarkable predictive ability (AUCBMI: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68-0.70; AUCWHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77). The genetic geographic distribution for WHR and PC1 (overall adiposity) showed higher predisposition in North than South Europe. Predictive ability of PRSs was null (AUC: ∼0.52) and did not improve when combined with environmental models. However, PRSs of BMI and PC1 showed some prediction ability for BMI gain from self-reported BMI at 20 years old to baseline observation (early adulthood) (AUC: 0.60-0.62). Interpretation: Our study indicates that environmental models to discriminate European individuals at higher risk of adiposity gain can be integrated in standard prevention protocols. PRSs may play a robust role in predicting adiposity gain at early rather than mid-late adulthood suggesting a more important role of genetic factors in this life period. |
| publishDate |
2025 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2025 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| format |
article |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/2445/219458 |
| url |
https://hdl.handle.net/2445/219458 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
Inglés |
| language_invalid_str_mv |
Inglés |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105510 EBioMedicine, 2025, vol. 111 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105510 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
cc-by (c) Peruchet-Noray, L. et al., 2025 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| rights_invalid_str_mv |
cc-by (c) Peruchet-Noray, L. et al., 2025 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Articles publicats en revistes (Ciències Clíniques) reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB instname:Universidad de Barcelona |
| instname_str |
Universidad de Barcelona |
| reponame_str |
Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| collection |
Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv |
|
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
| _version_ |
1869414922744496128 |
| score |
15,811543 |