Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)

The lack of long-term, homogeneous snowfall records is a limitation in environmental studies. Statistical modelling holds potential to extend snowfall records back in time with a limited set of predictors: snow severity and winter-spring temperatures (with their variability) to reflect elevation inf...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Diodato, Nazzareno, Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo, Bellocchi, Gianni
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/7225
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7225
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:550.3
North-Atlantic
Reconstruction
Variability
Temperature
Events
Europe
Trends
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/7225
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spelling Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)Diodato, NazzarenoGómara Cardalliaguet, ÍñigoBellocchi, Gianni550.3North-AtlanticReconstructionVariabilityTemperatureEventsEuropeTrendsGeofísica2507 GeofísicaThe lack of long-term, homogeneous snowfall records is a limitation in environmental studies. Statistical modelling holds potential to extend snowfall records back in time with a limited set of predictors: snow severity and winter-spring temperatures (with their variability) to reflect elevation influences. The annual number of snow days (SDY) in the Benevento Valley (southern Italy) was detailed for the period 1870-2018. Calibrated in the period 1870-1968 (R-2 = 0.85) and validated in the period 1969-2018 (R-2 = 0.67), the model developed here enabled the reconstruction of a time-series of SDY between 1645 and 2018. This unique series (the longest in southern Italy) shows that SDY peaked during the Little Ice Age (until similar to 1850), dominated by cold air masses or characterized by winter seasons extending until May (1655, 1684, 1763 and 1830) or June (1620). After the change-point detected in 1866, the modelled SDY time-series declined rapidly (Modern Warming Period, 1867-2018). The atmospheric conditions that favoured snowfall in the Benevento Valley throughout the study period were generally associated with an anomalous high-pressure system located over northern-northwestern Europe and a low in the eastern Mediterranean. This configuration allowed the incursion of cold continental air from the east-northeast into southern Italy. Our results are consistent with similar studies of snowfall in other European and mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere.Inter-ResearchUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20212021-01-0120212021-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7225reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/72252026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
title Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
spellingShingle Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
Diodato, Nazzareno
550.3
North-Atlantic
Reconstruction
Variability
Temperature
Events
Europe
Trends
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
title_short Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
title_full Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
title_fullStr Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
title_full_unstemmed Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
title_sort Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Diodato, Nazzareno
Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo
Bellocchi, Gianni
author Diodato, Nazzareno
author_facet Diodato, Nazzareno
Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo
Bellocchi, Gianni
author_role author
author2 Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo
Bellocchi, Gianni
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 550.3
North-Atlantic
Reconstruction
Variability
Temperature
Events
Europe
Trends
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
topic 550.3
North-Atlantic
Reconstruction
Variability
Temperature
Events
Europe
Trends
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
description The lack of long-term, homogeneous snowfall records is a limitation in environmental studies. Statistical modelling holds potential to extend snowfall records back in time with a limited set of predictors: snow severity and winter-spring temperatures (with their variability) to reflect elevation influences. The annual number of snow days (SDY) in the Benevento Valley (southern Italy) was detailed for the period 1870-2018. Calibrated in the period 1870-1968 (R-2 = 0.85) and validated in the period 1969-2018 (R-2 = 0.67), the model developed here enabled the reconstruction of a time-series of SDY between 1645 and 2018. This unique series (the longest in southern Italy) shows that SDY peaked during the Little Ice Age (until similar to 1850), dominated by cold air masses or characterized by winter seasons extending until May (1655, 1684, 1763 and 1830) or June (1620). After the change-point detected in 1866, the modelled SDY time-series declined rapidly (Modern Warming Period, 1867-2018). The atmospheric conditions that favoured snowfall in the Benevento Valley throughout the study period were generally associated with an anomalous high-pressure system located over northern-northwestern Europe and a low in the eastern Mediterranean. This configuration allowed the incursion of cold continental air from the east-northeast into southern Italy. Our results are consistent with similar studies of snowfall in other European and mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01
2021
2021-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7225
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7225
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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