Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions

The joint WWRP–WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (e.g., Robertson et al. 2014) created a global repository of experimental or operational near-real-time S2S forecasts and reforecasts (hindcasts) from 11 international meteorological institutions, cohosted by ECMWF and CMA (Vitart et al....

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Autores: White, Christopher J., Domeisen, Daniela I. V., Acharya, Nachiketa, Adefisan, Elijah A., Anderson, Michael L., Christel, Isadora, Manrique Suñén, Andrea, Palma, LLuís, Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972, Vigo, Ilaria
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/373078
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/373078
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Forecasting--Mathematical models
Public health
Extreme weather
Ensembles
Forecast verification/skill
Climate services
Decision support
Emergency preparedness
Societal impacts
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
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network_name_str España
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
title Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
spellingShingle Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
White, Christopher J.
Forecasting--Mathematical models
Public health
Extreme weather
Ensembles
Forecast verification/skill
Climate services
Decision support
Emergency preparedness
Societal impacts
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
title_short Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
title_full Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
title_fullStr Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
title_full_unstemmed Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
title_sort Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv White, Christopher J.
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.
Acharya, Nachiketa
Adefisan, Elijah A.
Anderson, Michael L.
Christel, Isadora
Manrique Suñén, Andrea
Palma, LLuís
Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
Vigo, Ilaria
author White, Christopher J.
author_facet White, Christopher J.
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.
Acharya, Nachiketa
Adefisan, Elijah A.
Anderson, Michael L.
Christel, Isadora
Manrique Suñén, Andrea
Palma, LLuís
Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
Vigo, Ilaria
author_role author
author2 Domeisen, Daniela I. V.
Acharya, Nachiketa
Adefisan, Elijah A.
Anderson, Michael L.
Christel, Isadora
Manrique Suñén, Andrea
Palma, LLuís
Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
Vigo, Ilaria
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Forecasting--Mathematical models
Public health
Extreme weather
Ensembles
Forecast verification/skill
Climate services
Decision support
Emergency preparedness
Societal impacts
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
topic Forecasting--Mathematical models
Public health
Extreme weather
Ensembles
Forecast verification/skill
Climate services
Decision support
Emergency preparedness
Societal impacts
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
description The joint WWRP–WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (e.g., Robertson et al. 2014) created a global repository of experimental or operational near-real-time S2S forecasts and reforecasts (hindcasts) from 11 international meteorological institutions, cohosted by ECMWF and CMA (Vitart et al. 2017). These data are publicly accessible by researchers and users (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s and http://s2s.cma.cn/index). With the exception of the fourth case study, which uses GloSea5 forecasts (MacLachlan et al. 2015), all case studies use selected S2S forecasts and reforecasts that are available from this repository, providing a consistent basis for S2S forecast skill assessment and evaluation of their utility.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2022-01-01
2022
2022-09-20
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/373078
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/373078
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society (AMS)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society (AMS)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictionsWhite, Christopher J.Domeisen, Daniela I. V.Acharya, NachiketaAdefisan, Elijah A.Anderson, Michael L.Christel, IsadoraManrique Suñén, AndreaPalma, LLuísSoret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972Vigo, IlariaForecasting--Mathematical modelsPublic healthExtreme weatherEnsemblesForecast verification/skillClimate servicesDecision supportEmergency preparednessSocietal impactsSimulació per ordinadorÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologiaThe joint WWRP–WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (e.g., Robertson et al. 2014) created a global repository of experimental or operational near-real-time S2S forecasts and reforecasts (hindcasts) from 11 international meteorological institutions, cohosted by ECMWF and CMA (Vitart et al. 2017). These data are publicly accessible by researchers and users (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s and http://s2s.cma.cn/index). With the exception of the fourth case study, which uses GloSea5 forecasts (MacLachlan et al. 2015), all case studies use selected S2S forecasts and reforecasts that are available from this repository, providing a consistent basis for S2S forecast skill assessment and evaluation of their utility.The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.DD gratefully acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation through project PP00P2_170523. For case study 1, ACP and WTKH were funded by the U.K. Climate Resilience Programme, supported by the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund. RWL was funded by NERC Grant NE/P00678/1 and by the BER DOE Office of Science Federal Award DE-SC0020324. TS was funded by NERC Independent Research Fellowship (NE/P018637/1). CMG and DB were funded by the Helmholtz Young Investigator Group “SPREADOUT” Grant VH-NG-1243. Case study 2 was supported by the U.K. Global Challenges Research Fund NE/P021077/1 (GCRF African SWIFT) and the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND) of Nigeria TETFund/DR&D/CE/NRF/STI/73/VOL.1. EO thanks Adrian Tomkins of ICTP, Italy, for his contribution. Case study 3 was undertaken as part of the Columbia World Project, ACToday, Columbia University (https://iri.columbia.edu/actoday/). Case study 4 was supported by the ForPAc (Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action) project within the NERC/FCDO SHEAR Programme NE/P000428/1, NE/P000673/1, and NE/P000568/1. Case study 5 was undertaken as part of the International Research Applications Project, funded by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. EO thanks IRAP project colleagues at The University of Arizona, Indian Meteorological Department, Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia, and two of Bihar’s State Agricultural Universities for their contributions. For case study 6, CASC thanks Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico Process 305206/2019-2 and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo Process 2015/50687-8 (CLIMAX Project) for their support. For case study 7, DW’s contributions were carried out under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Case study 8 was funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme Grant 7767874 (S2S4E). We also acknowledge the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Project’s Real-Time Pilot Initiative for providing access to real-time forecasts. For case study 9, TIC-LCPE Hydro-04 was funded by the University of Strathclyde’s Low Carbon Power and Energy program. JB was supported by EPSRC Innovation Fellowship EP/R023484/1. We thank Andrew Low and Richard Hearnden from SSE Renewables for their input. Case study 10 was supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub under the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, and the Decadal Climate Forecasting Project (CSIRO). Case study 11 was funded by the Technologies for Sustainable Built Environments Centre, Reading University, in conjunction with the EPSRC Grant EP/G037787/1 and BT PLC. Case study 12 was funded through the framework service contract for operating the EFAS Computational Center Contract 198702 and the Copernicus Fire Danger Computations Contract 389730 295 in support of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service and Early Warning Systems between the Joint Research Centre and ECMWF.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 60 autors/es: Christopher J. White, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Nachiketa Acharya, Elijah A. Adefisan, Michael L. Anderson, Stella Aura, Ahmed A. Balogun, Douglas Bertram, Sonia Bluhm, David J. Brayshaw, Jethro Browell, Dominik Büeler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Xandre Chourio, Isadora Christel, Caio A. S. Coelho, Michael J. DeFlorio, Luca Delle Monache, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Ana María García-Solórzano, Peter B. Gibson, Lisa Goddard, Carmen González Romero, Richard J. Graham, Robert M. Graham, Christian M. Grams, Alan Halford, W. T. Katty Huang, Kjeld Jensen, Mary Kilavi, Kamoru A. Lawal, Robert W. Lee, David MacLeod, Andrea Manrique-Suñén, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Carolyn J. Maxwell, William J. Merryfield, Ángel G. Muñoz, Eniola Olaniyan, George Otieno, John A. Oyedepo, Lluís Palma, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Diego Pons, F. Martin Ralph, Dirceu S. Reis Jr., Tomas A. Remenyi, James S. Risbey, Donald J. C. Robertson, Andrew W. Robertson, Stefan Smith, Albert Soret, Ting Sun, Martin C. Todd, Carly R. Tozer, Francisco C. Vasconcelos Jr., Ilaria Vigo, Duane E. Waliser, Fredrik Wetterhall, and Robert G. Wilson"American Meteorological Society (AMS)20222022-01-0120222022-09-20journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/373078https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3730782026-05-27T15:37:01Z
score 15.301629

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