On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. Howev...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Turco, Marco, Hardenberg, J. von, AghaKouchak, Amir, Llasat Botija, María del Carmen, Provenzale, A. (Antonello), Trigo, Ricardo M.
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2017
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/119323
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/119323
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Incendis forestals
Prevenció d'incendis
Canvi climàtic
Sequeres
Mediterrània (Regió)
Forest fires
Fire prevention
Climatic change
Droughts
Mediterranean Region
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spelling On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean EuropeTurco, MarcoHardenberg, J. vonAghaKouchak, AmirLlasat Botija, María del CarmenProvenzale, A. (Antonello)Trigo, Ricardo M.Incendis forestalsPrevenció d'incendisCanvi climàticSequeresMediterrània (Regió)Forest firesFire preventionClimatic changeDroughtsMediterranean RegionSummer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.Nature Publishing Group2017info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/119323Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00116-9Scientific Reports, 2017, vol. 7, num. 81, p. 1-10https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00116-9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641762cc-by (c) Turco, Marco et al., 2017http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/esinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1193232026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
spellingShingle On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
Turco, Marco
Incendis forestals
Prevenció d'incendis
Canvi climàtic
Sequeres
Mediterrània (Regió)
Forest fires
Fire prevention
Climatic change
Droughts
Mediterranean Region
title_short On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_full On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_fullStr On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_full_unstemmed On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
title_sort On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Turco, Marco
Hardenberg, J. von
AghaKouchak, Amir
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Provenzale, A. (Antonello)
Trigo, Ricardo M.
author Turco, Marco
author_facet Turco, Marco
Hardenberg, J. von
AghaKouchak, Amir
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Provenzale, A. (Antonello)
Trigo, Ricardo M.
author_role author
author2 Hardenberg, J. von
AghaKouchak, Amir
Llasat Botija, María del Carmen
Provenzale, A. (Antonello)
Trigo, Ricardo M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Incendis forestals
Prevenció d'incendis
Canvi climàtic
Sequeres
Mediterrània (Regió)
Forest fires
Fire prevention
Climatic change
Droughts
Mediterranean Region
topic Incendis forestals
Prevenció d'incendis
Canvi climàtic
Sequeres
Mediterrània (Regió)
Forest fires
Fire prevention
Climatic change
Droughts
Mediterranean Region
description Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/119323
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/119323
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00116-9
Scientific Reports, 2017, vol. 7, num. 81, p. 1-10
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00116-9
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641762
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) Turco, Marco et al., 2017
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) Turco, Marco et al., 2017
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Física Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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