A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics

In our more and more interconnected world, a specific risk is that of a cyber-epidemic (or cyber-pandemic), produced either accidentally or intentionally, where a cyber virus propagates from device to device up to undermining the global Internet system with devastating consequences in terms of econo...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Aleja, David, Contreras-Aso, Gonzalo, Alfaro-Bittner, Karin, Primo, Eva, Criado, Regino, Romance, Miguel, Boccaletti, Stefano
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
Repositorio:BURJC-Digital. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
OAI Identifier:oai:burjcdigital.urjc.es:10115/31565
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10115/31565
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Cyber-epidemics
Compartmental model
Networks
Epidemics spreading
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spelling A compartmental model for cyber-epidemicsAleja, DavidContreras-Aso, GonzaloAlfaro-Bittner, KarinPrimo, EvaCriado, ReginoRomance, MiguelBoccaletti, StefanoCyber-epidemicsCompartmental modelNetworksEpidemics spreadingIn our more and more interconnected world, a specific risk is that of a cyber-epidemic (or cyber-pandemic), produced either accidentally or intentionally, where a cyber virus propagates from device to device up to undermining the global Internet system with devastating consequences in terms of economic costs and societal harms related to the shutdown of essential services. We introduce a compartmental model for studying the spreading of a malware and of the awareness of its incidence through different waves which are evolving on top of the same graph structure (the global network of connected devices). This is realized by considering vectorial compartments made of two components, the first being descriptive of the state of the device with respect to the new malware's propagation, and the second accounting for the awareness of the device's user about the presence of the cyber threat. By introducing suitable transition rates between such compartments, one can then follow the evolution of a cyber-epidemic from the moment at which a new virus is seeded in the network, up to when a given user realizes that his/her device has suffered a damage and consequently starts a wave of awareness which eventually ends up with the development of a proper antivirus software. We then compare the overall damage that a malware is able to produce in Erdős-Rényi and scale-free network architectures for both the case in which the virus is causing a fixed damage on each device and the case where, instead, the virus is engineered to mutate while replicating from device to device. Our result constitutes actually the attempt to build a specific compartmental model whose variables and parameters are entirely customized for describing cyber-epidemics.ELSEVIER202420242022info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10115/31565reponame:BURJC-Digital. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Rey Juan Carlosinstname:Universidad Rey Juan CarlosInglésAtribución 4.0 Internacionalhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:burjcdigital.urjc.es:10115/315652026-06-24T12:48:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
title A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
spellingShingle A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
Aleja, David
Cyber-epidemics
Compartmental model
Networks
Epidemics spreading
title_short A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
title_full A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
title_fullStr A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
title_full_unstemmed A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
title_sort A compartmental model for cyber-epidemics
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Aleja, David
Contreras-Aso, Gonzalo
Alfaro-Bittner, Karin
Primo, Eva
Criado, Regino
Romance, Miguel
Boccaletti, Stefano
author Aleja, David
author_facet Aleja, David
Contreras-Aso, Gonzalo
Alfaro-Bittner, Karin
Primo, Eva
Criado, Regino
Romance, Miguel
Boccaletti, Stefano
author_role author
author2 Contreras-Aso, Gonzalo
Alfaro-Bittner, Karin
Primo, Eva
Criado, Regino
Romance, Miguel
Boccaletti, Stefano
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Cyber-epidemics
Compartmental model
Networks
Epidemics spreading
topic Cyber-epidemics
Compartmental model
Networks
Epidemics spreading
description In our more and more interconnected world, a specific risk is that of a cyber-epidemic (or cyber-pandemic), produced either accidentally or intentionally, where a cyber virus propagates from device to device up to undermining the global Internet system with devastating consequences in terms of economic costs and societal harms related to the shutdown of essential services. We introduce a compartmental model for studying the spreading of a malware and of the awareness of its incidence through different waves which are evolving on top of the same graph structure (the global network of connected devices). This is realized by considering vectorial compartments made of two components, the first being descriptive of the state of the device with respect to the new malware's propagation, and the second accounting for the awareness of the device's user about the presence of the cyber threat. By introducing suitable transition rates between such compartments, one can then follow the evolution of a cyber-epidemic from the moment at which a new virus is seeded in the network, up to when a given user realizes that his/her device has suffered a damage and consequently starts a wave of awareness which eventually ends up with the development of a proper antivirus software. We then compare the overall damage that a malware is able to produce in Erdős-Rényi and scale-free network architectures for both the case in which the virus is causing a fixed damage on each device and the case where, instead, the virus is engineered to mutate while replicating from device to device. Our result constitutes actually the attempt to build a specific compartmental model whose variables and parameters are entirely customized for describing cyber-epidemics.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2024
2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10115/31565
url https://hdl.handle.net/10115/31565
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Atribución 4.0 Internacional
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Atribución 4.0 Internacional
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ELSEVIER
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ELSEVIER
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:BURJC-Digital. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
instname:Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
instname_str Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
reponame_str BURJC-Digital. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
collection BURJC-Digital. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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