WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level

This study introduces the WiBISS model, a simulation tool designed to assess the economic and epidemiological impact of a hypothetical African Swine Fever (ASF) vaccination in wild boar in Northern Italy. Using real ASF outbreak data from January 2022 to June 2024, the model evaluates how prompt vac...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Ibáñez-Porras, Pablo, Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso, Feliziani, Francesco, Maresca, Carmen, Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel, Iglesias, Irene, Aguilar Vega, Cecilia, Martínez-Avilés, Marta
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/126091
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/126091
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:579.62
ASF vaccine
Cost analysis
Disease control strategies
Pig production
Rapidrisk assessment
Wildlife
Microbiología (Veterinaria)
3109.05 Microbiología
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/126091
network_acronym_str ES
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repository_id_str
spelling WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality levelIbáñez-Porras, PabloBosch López, Jaime AlfonsoFeliziani, FrancescoMaresca, CarmenSánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelIglesias, IreneAguilar Vega, CeciliaMartínez-Avilés, Marta579.62ASF vaccineCost analysisDisease control strategiesPig productionRapidrisk assessmentWildlifeMicrobiología (Veterinaria)3109.05 MicrobiologíaThis study introduces the WiBISS model, a simulation tool designed to assess the economic and epidemiological impact of a hypothetical African Swine Fever (ASF) vaccination in wild boar in Northern Italy. Using real ASF outbreak data from January 2022 to June 2024, the model evaluates how prompt vaccination could reduce disease spread and economic losses. WiBISS integrates three modules: vaccination simulation, restriction zone estimation, and economic impact analysis. The first two use custom-built cellular automata (CA) in Python and ArcGIS Pro, modeling each ASF case as a cell that can be in one of three states: unvaccinated, infected, or vaccinated. Weekly iterations over 2.5 years simulate ASF progression and vaccination impact based on localized interactions and a defined vaccination radius. Three vaccination scenarios were tested: (1) a non-vaccination baseline; (2) an "ideal" scenario with immediate, 100% vaccination; and (3) multiple "realistic" scenarios with an 8-week delay and varied vaccination rates (25-75%) and radii (10-50 km). The most effective realistic scenarios (e.g., 75% vaccination rate, 50 km radius) showed a total loss of €601,800, close to the ideal scenario. WiBISS prioritizes usability over epidemiological complexity, omitting detailed virus transmission modeling to enhance applicability in data-scarce regions. Unlike detailed stochastic models, WiBISS offers rapid, economically grounded insights to guide initial outbreak response and resource allocation. Although it does not include domestic pigs due to differing transmission dynamics, WiBISS lays a foundation for phased, integrated wildlife vaccination planning that balances economic feasibility with ecological realismFrontiers MediaUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20252025-01-0120252025-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/126091reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1260912026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
title WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
spellingShingle WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
Ibáñez-Porras, Pablo
579.62
ASF vaccine
Cost analysis
Disease control strategies
Pig production
Rapidrisk assessment
Wildlife
Microbiología (Veterinaria)
3109.05 Microbiología
title_short WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
title_full WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
title_fullStr WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
title_full_unstemmed WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
title_sort WiBISS: a tool to estimate avoided lost revenue of African swine fever wild boar vaccination at municipality level
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ibáñez-Porras, Pablo
Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
Feliziani, Francesco
Maresca, Carmen
Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
Iglesias, Irene
Aguilar Vega, Cecilia
Martínez-Avilés, Marta
author Ibáñez-Porras, Pablo
author_facet Ibáñez-Porras, Pablo
Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
Feliziani, Francesco
Maresca, Carmen
Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
Iglesias, Irene
Aguilar Vega, Cecilia
Martínez-Avilés, Marta
author_role author
author2 Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
Feliziani, Francesco
Maresca, Carmen
Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
Iglesias, Irene
Aguilar Vega, Cecilia
Martínez-Avilés, Marta
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 579.62
ASF vaccine
Cost analysis
Disease control strategies
Pig production
Rapidrisk assessment
Wildlife
Microbiología (Veterinaria)
3109.05 Microbiología
topic 579.62
ASF vaccine
Cost analysis
Disease control strategies
Pig production
Rapidrisk assessment
Wildlife
Microbiología (Veterinaria)
3109.05 Microbiología
description This study introduces the WiBISS model, a simulation tool designed to assess the economic and epidemiological impact of a hypothetical African Swine Fever (ASF) vaccination in wild boar in Northern Italy. Using real ASF outbreak data from January 2022 to June 2024, the model evaluates how prompt vaccination could reduce disease spread and economic losses. WiBISS integrates three modules: vaccination simulation, restriction zone estimation, and economic impact analysis. The first two use custom-built cellular automata (CA) in Python and ArcGIS Pro, modeling each ASF case as a cell that can be in one of three states: unvaccinated, infected, or vaccinated. Weekly iterations over 2.5 years simulate ASF progression and vaccination impact based on localized interactions and a defined vaccination radius. Three vaccination scenarios were tested: (1) a non-vaccination baseline; (2) an "ideal" scenario with immediate, 100% vaccination; and (3) multiple "realistic" scenarios with an 8-week delay and varied vaccination rates (25-75%) and radii (10-50 km). The most effective realistic scenarios (e.g., 75% vaccination rate, 50 km radius) showed a total loss of €601,800, close to the ideal scenario. WiBISS prioritizes usability over epidemiological complexity, omitting detailed virus transmission modeling to enhance applicability in data-scarce regions. Unlike detailed stochastic models, WiBISS offers rapid, economically grounded insights to guide initial outbreak response and resource allocation. Although it does not include domestic pigs due to differing transmission dynamics, WiBISS lays a foundation for phased, integrated wildlife vaccination planning that balances economic feasibility with ecological realism
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-01-01
2025
2025-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/126091
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/126091
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.811543

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