A factor analysis of volatility across the term structure: the Spanish case

We show how the term structure of volatilities for zero-cupon interest rates from the Spanish secondary debt market can be explained by a reduced number of factors. This factor representation can be used to produce time series volatilities across the whole term structure. As an alternative, volatili...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Benito Muela, Sonia, Novales Cinca, Alfonso Santiago
Tipo de recurso: informe técnico
Fecha de publicación:2005
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/56622
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/56622
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:analysis of volatility
Econometría (Economía)
5302 Econometría
Descripción
Sumario:We show how the term structure of volatilities for zero-cupon interest rates from the Spanish secondary debt market can be explained by a reduced number of factors. This factor representation can be used to produce time series volatilities across the whole term structure. As an alternative, volatilities can also be derived from a factor model for interest rates themselves. We find evidence contrary to the hypothesis that these two procedures lead to statistically equivalent time series, so that choosing the right model to estimate volatility is far from trivial. The volatility factor model fits univariate EGARCH volatility time series much better than the interest rate factor model does. However, observed differences seem to be of little consequence for VaR estimation on zero coupon bonds.