How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin

[EN] Droughts pose a significant challenge to water management, particularly in semi-arid regions with high water demand. In this context, drought indices have proven to be valuable tools for enhancing drought awareness and decision-making, as they provide critical information for water resource man...

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Autores: Ávila-Velásquez, Dariana Isamel|||0000-0001-9835-9369, Macian-Sorribes, Hector|||0000-0003-4077-9955, Pulido-Velazquez, M.|||0000-0001-7009-6130
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/231135
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/231135
Access Level:acceso embargado
Palabra clave:Meteorological drought indices
Multi-model seasonal forecasting
Semi-arid regions
Mediterranean basin
Forecast skill.
06.- Garantizar la disponibilidad y la gestión sostenible del agua y el saneamiento para todos
13.- Tomar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos
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network_name_str España
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
title How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
spellingShingle How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
Ávila-Velásquez, Dariana Isamel|||0000-0001-9835-9369
Meteorological drought indices
Multi-model seasonal forecasting
Semi-arid regions
Mediterranean basin
Forecast skill.
06.- Garantizar la disponibilidad y la gestión sostenible del agua y el saneamiento para todos
13.- Tomar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos
title_short How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
title_full How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
title_fullStr How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
title_full_unstemmed How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
title_sort How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ávila-Velásquez, Dariana Isamel|||0000-0001-9835-9369
Macian-Sorribes, Hector|||0000-0003-4077-9955
Pulido-Velazquez, M.|||0000-0001-7009-6130
author Ávila-Velásquez, Dariana Isamel|||0000-0001-9835-9369
author_facet Ávila-Velásquez, Dariana Isamel|||0000-0001-9835-9369
Macian-Sorribes, Hector|||0000-0003-4077-9955
Pulido-Velazquez, M.|||0000-0001-7009-6130
author_role author
author2 Macian-Sorribes, Hector|||0000-0003-4077-9955
Pulido-Velazquez, M.|||0000-0001-7009-6130
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente
Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y Puertos
Generalitat Valenciana
Ministerio de Universidades e Investigación
Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Meteorological drought indices
Multi-model seasonal forecasting
Semi-arid regions
Mediterranean basin
Forecast skill.
06.- Garantizar la disponibilidad y la gestión sostenible del agua y el saneamiento para todos
13.- Tomar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos
topic Meteorological drought indices
Multi-model seasonal forecasting
Semi-arid regions
Mediterranean basin
Forecast skill.
06.- Garantizar la disponibilidad y la gestión sostenible del agua y el saneamiento para todos
13.- Tomar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos
description [EN] Droughts pose a significant challenge to water management, particularly in semi-arid regions with high water demand. In this context, drought indices have proven to be valuable tools for enhancing drought awareness and decision-making, as they provide critical information for water resource management. However, their integration with seasonal forecasts remains underexplored. Most currently operational drought forecasting and early warning services either do not incorporate indices or are limited to using a small subset of them. In this study, we present a multi-model seasonal forecasting system for meteorological drought indices, integrating forecasts from four systems (ECMWF-SEAS5, Météo-France System8, DWD-GCFS2.1, and CMCC-SPSv3.5) available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) with ERA5 reanalysis for post-processing with artificial intelligence. Evaluated over the 1995¿2014 hindcasts period. The system computes two widely used drought indices, SPI and SPEI, at multiple aggregation scales (6, 12, 18, and 24 months). Forecast skill is evaluated using the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), shows high skill, with values around 90% at one lead month and remaining above 64% and 67% at three lead months for SPI-6 and SPEI-6, respectively. Longer aggregations retain useful skill up to five lead months. The methodology is applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain), a representative semi-arid Mediterranean basin characterized by recurrent and severe droughts. Results highlight the potential of multi-model seasonal forecasts for supporting drought early warning and water management. An operational web-based implementation further demonstrates the system¿s applicability for decision-making, although the methodological framework is transferable to other drought-prone regions.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-12-01
2025
2025-12-19
2026
2026-11-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/231135
url https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/231135
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Universidades MIU FPU20%2F07494 MEJORA DE LA GESTIÓN DEL AGUA PARA RIEGO EN CUENCAS MEDITERRÁNEAS COMBINANDO TELEDETECCIÓN, PREDICCIÓN METEOROLÓGICA, INTELIGENCIA ARTIFICIAL Y MODELOS DE GESTIÓN
Generalitat Valenciana https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003359 PROMETEO%2F2021%2F074 INtegrated FORecasting System for Water and the Environment
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv embargoed access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf
Reserva de todos los derechos
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv embargoed access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf
Reserva de todos los derechos
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
eu_rights_str_mv embargoedAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
instname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
reponame_str RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
collection RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling How good are drought forecasts? Skill of multi-model seasonal forecast of meteorological droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean basinÁvila-Velásquez, Dariana Isamel|||0000-0001-9835-9369Macian-Sorribes, Hector|||0000-0003-4077-9955Pulido-Velazquez, M.|||0000-0001-7009-6130Meteorological drought indicesMulti-model seasonal forecastingSemi-arid regionsMediterranean basinForecast skill.06.- Garantizar la disponibilidad y la gestión sostenible del agua y el saneamiento para todos13.- Tomar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos[EN] Droughts pose a significant challenge to water management, particularly in semi-arid regions with high water demand. In this context, drought indices have proven to be valuable tools for enhancing drought awareness and decision-making, as they provide critical information for water resource management. However, their integration with seasonal forecasts remains underexplored. Most currently operational drought forecasting and early warning services either do not incorporate indices or are limited to using a small subset of them. In this study, we present a multi-model seasonal forecasting system for meteorological drought indices, integrating forecasts from four systems (ECMWF-SEAS5, Météo-France System8, DWD-GCFS2.1, and CMCC-SPSv3.5) available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) with ERA5 reanalysis for post-processing with artificial intelligence. Evaluated over the 1995¿2014 hindcasts period. The system computes two widely used drought indices, SPI and SPEI, at multiple aggregation scales (6, 12, 18, and 24 months). Forecast skill is evaluated using the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), shows high skill, with values around 90% at one lead month and remaining above 64% and 67% at three lead months for SPI-6 and SPEI-6, respectively. Longer aggregations retain useful skill up to five lead months. The methodology is applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain), a representative semi-arid Mediterranean basin characterized by recurrent and severe droughts. Results highlight the potential of multi-model seasonal forecasts for supporting drought early warning and water management. An operational web-based implementation further demonstrates the system¿s applicability for decision-making, although the methodological framework is transferable to other drought-prone regions.This research has been funded by the University Teacher Training (FPU) contract of the Ministry of Universities (FPU20/0749); by the project INtegrated FORecasting System for Water and the Environment (WATER4CAST) of the Program for the promotion of scientific research, technological development and innovation in the Valencian Community for research groups of excellence, PROMETEO2021 (ref: PROMETEO/2021/074), from the Department of Innovation, Universities, Science and Digital Society, Generalitat Valenciana.SpringerDepartamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio AmbienteInstituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio AmbienteEscuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y PuertosGeneralitat ValencianaMinisterio de Universidades e InvestigaciónRepositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet20252025-12-0120252025-12-1920262026-11-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/231135reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valénciainstname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)InglésengMinisterio de Universidades MIU FPU20%2F07494 MEJORA DE LA GESTIÓN DEL AGUA PARA RIEGO EN CUENCAS MEDITERRÁNEAS COMBINANDO TELEDETECCIÓN, PREDICCIÓN METEOROLÓGICA, INTELIGENCIA ARTIFICIAL Y MODELOS DE GESTIÓNGeneralitat Valenciana https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003359 PROMETEO%2F2021%2F074 INtegrated FORecasting System for Water and the Environmentembargoed accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cfReserva de todos los derechoshttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessoai:riunet.upv.es:10251/2311352026-06-13T07:49:27Z
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