On the optimism correction of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in logistic prediction models

When the same data are used to fit a model and estimate its predictive performance, this estimate may be optimistic, and its correction is required. The aim of this work is to compare the behaviour of different methods proposed in the literature when correcting for the optimism of the estimated area...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Iparragirre, Amaia|||0000-0002-0660-6535, Barrio Beraza, Irantzu|||0000-0003-0648-5769, Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé|||0000-0002-1329-9238
Format: article
Publication Date:2019
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repository:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:205824
Online Access:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/205824
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.2436/20.8080.02.82
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Prediction models
Logistic regression
Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
Validation
Bootstrap
Description
Summary:When the same data are used to fit a model and estimate its predictive performance, this estimate may be optimistic, and its correction is required. The aim of this work is to compare the behaviour of different methods proposed in the literature when correcting for the optimism of the estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in logistic regression models. A simulation study (where the theoretical model is known) is conducted considering different number of covariates, sample size, prevalence and correlation among covariates. The results suggest the use of k-fold cross-validation with replication and bootstrap.