Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150

[Data Availability Statement] The derived datasets presented in this study are openly available in Zenodo at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18921774 (accessed on 6 March 2026). This includes GeoPackage files of permanent inundation projections (floods_2100.gpkg, floods_2150.gpkg) and intersecting O...

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Autores: Ibarra-Marinas, Daniel, Silva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela, Mata-Chacón, Dulce, Belmonte-Serrato, Francisco
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:digitalcsic_::9b83789a7277a60b713963f396f14654
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/430593
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Sea-level rise
Subsidence
Metro Manila
IPCC projections
Coastal flooding
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spelling Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150Ibarra-Marinas, DanielSilva-Mendoza, Laura MarcelaMata-Chacón, DulceBelmonte-Serrato, FranciscoSea-level riseSubsidenceMetro ManilaIPCC projectionsCoastal flooding[Data Availability Statement] The derived datasets presented in this study are openly available in Zenodo at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18921774 (accessed on 6 March 2026). This includes GeoPackage files of permanent inundation projections (floods_2100.gpkg, floods_2150.gpkg) and intersecting OSM buildings (buildings_flooded_2100.gpkg, buildings_flooded_2150.gpkg), under CC BY 4.0 license.Metro Manila, one of the world’s most densely populated megacities, is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise because of its low-lying deltaic location, frequent tropical cyclones, and rapid anthropogenic subsidence caused mainly by groundwater extraction. This study brings together historical tide-gauge records from the Port of Manila (PSMSL) with the Sixth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, adding in vertical land motion (VLM) and sea-level fingerprints to work out local relative sea-level (RSL) changes. Assuming a constant subsidence rate, cumulative VLM reaches ~0.785 m by 2100 and ~1.289 m by 2150. When you factor in climatic contributions (amplified 10–20% by fingerprints, especially under high-emission scenarios thanks to far-field Antarctic ice-loss effects in the western Pacific), projected RSL ranges from 1.09–1.42 m (SSP1-2.6) to 1.51–2.00 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, and from 1.70–2.28 m to 2.41–3.54 m by 2150. Results show that 7.95–11.15 km2 (1.2–1.8% of land area under SSP5-8.5) could face permanent inundation, mostly in Malabon (~18%), Navotas (~20%), and Manila (~7%). Our conservative estimates (permanent ocean-connected flooding, excluding existing aquaculture areas) come in much lower than earlier mid-century projections of up to a 30% area affected. All this will worsen chronic tidal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and risks to millions in low-lying districts. We urgently need integrated adaptation, better groundwater regulation, and a mix of nature-based and engineered solutions.This research received no external funding.Peer reviewedMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteSilva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela [0009-0007-9846-1866]Mata-Chacón, Dulce [0000-0003-3294-8210]Mata-Chacón, Dulce [0000-0002-1331-1743]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]2026202620262026info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/430593reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)InglésIbarra-Marinas, Daniel; Silva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela; Mata-Chacón, Dulce; Belmonte-Serrato, Francisco; 2026; Derived Flood Projection Layers and Affected Buildings for Metro Manila [Dataset]; Version v1; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18921774https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies6020041Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:digitalcsic_::9b83789a7277a60b713963f396f146542026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
title Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
spellingShingle Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
Ibarra-Marinas, Daniel
Sea-level rise
Subsidence
Metro Manila
IPCC projections
Coastal flooding
title_short Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
title_full Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
title_fullStr Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
title_full_unstemmed Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
title_sort Climate Change and Subsidence in Metro Manila: Relative Sea-Level Projections Through Tide-Gauge Records and Satellite Altimetry up to 2150
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ibarra-Marinas, Daniel
Silva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela
Mata-Chacón, Dulce
Belmonte-Serrato, Francisco
author Ibarra-Marinas, Daniel
author_facet Ibarra-Marinas, Daniel
Silva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela
Mata-Chacón, Dulce
Belmonte-Serrato, Francisco
author_role author
author2 Silva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela
Mata-Chacón, Dulce
Belmonte-Serrato, Francisco
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Silva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela [0009-0007-9846-1866]
Mata-Chacón, Dulce [0000-0003-3294-8210]
Mata-Chacón, Dulce [0000-0002-1331-1743]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Sea-level rise
Subsidence
Metro Manila
IPCC projections
Coastal flooding
topic Sea-level rise
Subsidence
Metro Manila
IPCC projections
Coastal flooding
description [Data Availability Statement] The derived datasets presented in this study are openly available in Zenodo at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18921774 (accessed on 6 March 2026). This includes GeoPackage files of permanent inundation projections (floods_2100.gpkg, floods_2150.gpkg) and intersecting OSM buildings (buildings_flooded_2100.gpkg, buildings_flooded_2150.gpkg), under CC BY 4.0 license.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026
2026
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/430593
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/430593
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ibarra-Marinas, Daniel; Silva-Mendoza, Laura Marcela; Mata-Chacón, Dulce; Belmonte-Serrato, Francisco; 2026; Derived Flood Projection Layers and Affected Buildings for Metro Manila [Dataset]; Version v1; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18921774
https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies6020041
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.812429

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