A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe
The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model's active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to th...
| Autores: | , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Conselleria de Salut i Consum del Govern de les Illes Balears |
| Repositorio: | Docusalut |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:docusalut.com:20.500.13003/9498 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13003/9498 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Pneumonia, Viral Physics Humans SARS-CoV-2 Europe Pandemics Coronavirus Infections Betacoronavirus Models, Theoretical COVID-19 Pandemias Física Modelos Teóricos Humanos Neumonía Viral Europa (Continente) Infecciones por Coronavirus model of the infection diffusion self-organizing systems lattice simulations epidemiology preventive measures |
| Sumario: | The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model's active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general-even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19-further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems. |
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