Exploring the role of climate variability and change in the spillover of zoonotic diseases: towards the development of Early Warning Systems (RWS)

The primary goal of this PhD is to deepen our understanding and improve the modeling capacity of zoonotic spillover, the multilevel process by which pathogens manage to overcome a series of natural barriers and infect other species. In particular, a key focus of this study is to unravel the influenc...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: San José Plana, Adrià
Tipo de recurso: tesis doctoral
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:CBUC, CESCA
Repositorio:TDR. Tesis Doctorales en Red
OAI Identifier:oai:www.tdx.cat:10803/690662
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10803/690662
Access Level:acceso embargado
Palabra clave:Zoonotic spillover
Zoonoses
Climate change
Early Warning System
ENSO
NAO
Spillover zoonòtic
Malalties zoonòtiques
Canvi climàtic
Sistema d’alerta primerenca
575
Descripción
Sumario:The primary goal of this PhD is to deepen our understanding and improve the modeling capacity of zoonotic spillover, the multilevel process by which pathogens manage to overcome a series of natural barriers and infect other species. In particular, a key focus of this study is to unravel the influence of various external environmental and climatic extrinsic factors on this complex ecological process. These include land-use changes, deforestation/vegetation health, and especially climate trends, variability, and extremes. Considering the inherent challenges in forecasting long-term atmospheric conditions, this study delves into the potential of coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena. Recognized for their enhanced predictive capabilities, these phenomena are analyzed as essential climate covariates, in order to be able to increase the foresight, accuracy, and efficiency of early warning systems targeting zoonotic diseases. Concurrently, the thesis also investigates the role of climate in influencing microbial biodiversity, a portion of which contributes to pathogenic biodiversity. This aspect of the research aims to discern how climatic variables may determine the geographical patterns of zoonotic spillover.