Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study

12 páginas, 10 figuras, 5 tablas.-- et al.

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Durão, R. M., Barrio, G. del, Soares, Antonio M.
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2010
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/39264
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/39264
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Precipitation extremes
Space–time patterns
Stochastic simulation
Spatial uncertainty
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spelling Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment studyDurão, R. M.Barrio, G. delSoares, Antonio M.Precipitation extremesSpace–time patternsStochastic simulationSpatial uncertainty12 páginas, 10 figuras, 5 tablas.-- et al.Most of the recent studies and projections of precipitation patterns, based on records observed in the past and climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean basin, suggest a relatively slow decrease in rainfall amounts over the years but an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events. These are key factors in desertification processes and these will cause social and environmental impacts in the short term, mainly because changes in heavy rainfall events may have severe implications and impacts on soil erosion, resulting in increased risk of soil degradation. The main objective of the present work is to evaluate the spatial–temporal dynamics of extreme precipitation events in southern Portugal, using a direct sequential simulation algorithm (DSS models) in order to assess the relationships between spatial and temporal extreme rainfall patterns. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of the chosen extreme precipitation indices. The used dataset in this work comprises a set of 105 station records of observed daily precipitation within the period 1961–2000. Two indices of extreme precipitation were selected: one representing the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events (R30) and another characterizing the occurrence of dry events (RL10), both obtained from observed daily precipitation series. Results show that the spatial continuity of extreme precipitation events has increased in the last 40 years in southern Portugal. It also demonstrates a decrease in spatial variability, implying that extreme precipitation events tend to be more spatially homogeneous, which may have a severe impact on water resources, agriculture and soil erosion, particularly when associated with desertification risks.This paper was developed in the framework of the following projects: BioAridRisk – Space-Time Evaluation of the Risks of Climate Change Based on an Aridity Index (POCI/CLI/56371/2004FCT/MCTES), CIDmeg – Construction of a Desertification Susceptibility Index for the Left Margin of Guadiana (POCI/CLI/58865/2004 FCT/MCTES) and SADMO – Système d’Évaluation et Contrôle de la Désertification dans la Méditerranée Occidentale (Programme Interreg IIIB, MEDDOC, CONVENTION n. 2005-05-4.4-P-105).Peer reviewedRoyal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)Wiley-Blackwell201120112010info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://hdl.handle.net/10261/39264reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1999info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/392642026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
title Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
spellingShingle Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
Durão, R. M.
Precipitation extremes
Space–time patterns
Stochastic simulation
Spatial uncertainty
title_short Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
title_full Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
title_fullStr Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
title_full_unstemmed Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
title_sort Spatial–temporal dynamics of precipitation extremes in southern Portugal: a geostatistical assessment study
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Durão, R. M.
Barrio, G. del
Soares, Antonio M.
author Durão, R. M.
author_facet Durão, R. M.
Barrio, G. del
Soares, Antonio M.
author_role author
author2 Barrio, G. del
Soares, Antonio M.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Precipitation extremes
Space–time patterns
Stochastic simulation
Spatial uncertainty
topic Precipitation extremes
Space–time patterns
Stochastic simulation
Spatial uncertainty
description 12 páginas, 10 figuras, 5 tablas.-- et al.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010
2011
2011
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/39264
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/39264
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1999
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
Wiley-Blackwell
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
Wiley-Blackwell
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.811543

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