Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain

Predicting water quality and quantity response to climate change in a watershed is very difficult due to the complexity and uncertainties in estimating and understanding future hydrological conditions. However, hydrological models could simplify the processes and predict future impacts of agricultur...

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Autores: Oduor, Brian Omondi, Campo-Bescós, Miguel, Lana Renault, Noemí, Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Pública de Navarra
Repositorio:Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
OAI Identifier:oai:academica-e.unavarra.es:2454/46215
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/2454/46215
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Future projection
Nitrate load
Rainfed agriculture
SWAT model
Water quality
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spelling Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern SpainOduor, Brian OmondiCampo-Bescós, MiguelLana Renault, NoemíCasalí Sarasíbar, JavierFuture projectionNitrate loadRainfed agricultureSWAT modelWater qualityPredicting water quality and quantity response to climate change in a watershed is very difficult due to the complexity and uncertainties in estimating and understanding future hydrological conditions. However, hydrological models could simplify the processes and predict future impacts of agricultural activities. This study aimed to evaluate the applicability of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for climate change prediction of streamflow and nitrate load in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in northern Spain. The model was first evaluated for simulating streamflow and nitrate load under rainfed agricultural conditions in the Cidacos River watershed in Navarre, Spain. Then, climate change impact analysis on streamflow and nitrate load was conducted in the short-term (2011–2040), medium-term (2041–2070), and long-term (2071–2100) future projections relative to the historical baseline period (1971–2000) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 CO2 emission scenarios. The model evaluation showed a good model performance result during calibration (2000–2010) and validation (2011–2020) for streamflow (NSE = 0.82/0.83) and nitrate load (NSE = 0.71/0.68), indicating its suitability for adoption in the watershed. The climate change projection results showed a steady decline in streamflow and nitrate load for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in all projections, with the long-term projection scenario of RCP8.5 greatly affected. Autumn and winter saw a considerable drop in comparison to spring and summer. The decline in streamflow was attributed to the projected decrease in precipitation and increase in temperatures, while the nitrate load decline was consistent with the projected streamflow decline. Based on these projections, the long-term projection scenarios of RCP8.5 indicate dire situations requiring urgent policy changes and management interventions to minimize and mitigate the resulting climate change effects. Therefore, adapted agricultural management practices are needed to ensure sustainable water resource utilization and efficient nitrogen fertilizer application rates in the watershed to reduce pollution.This study was supported by funding from the European Union's H2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 801586, and from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Government of Spain) via Research Project CGL2015–64284-C2–1-R and PID2020–112908RB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/FEDER "Una manera de hacer Europa".ElsevierIngenieríaIngeniaritzaInstitute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOOD2023info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/mswordhttps://hdl.handle.net/2454/46215reponame:Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarrainstname:Universidad Pública de NavarraInglésinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/European Commission/Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/801586info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2015-64284-C2-1-Rinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-112908RB-I00© 2023 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:academica-e.unavarra.es:2454/462152026-06-17T12:41:47Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
title Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
spellingShingle Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
Oduor, Brian Omondi
Future projection
Nitrate load
Rainfed agriculture
SWAT model
Water quality
title_short Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
title_full Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
title_fullStr Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
title_full_unstemmed Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
title_sort Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural mediterranean watershed in northern Spain
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Oduor, Brian Omondi
Campo-Bescós, Miguel
Lana Renault, Noemí
Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier
author Oduor, Brian Omondi
author_facet Oduor, Brian Omondi
Campo-Bescós, Miguel
Lana Renault, Noemí
Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier
author_role author
author2 Campo-Bescós, Miguel
Lana Renault, Noemí
Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ingeniería
Ingeniaritza
Institute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOOD
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Future projection
Nitrate load
Rainfed agriculture
SWAT model
Water quality
topic Future projection
Nitrate load
Rainfed agriculture
SWAT model
Water quality
description Predicting water quality and quantity response to climate change in a watershed is very difficult due to the complexity and uncertainties in estimating and understanding future hydrological conditions. However, hydrological models could simplify the processes and predict future impacts of agricultural activities. This study aimed to evaluate the applicability of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for climate change prediction of streamflow and nitrate load in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in northern Spain. The model was first evaluated for simulating streamflow and nitrate load under rainfed agricultural conditions in the Cidacos River watershed in Navarre, Spain. Then, climate change impact analysis on streamflow and nitrate load was conducted in the short-term (2011–2040), medium-term (2041–2070), and long-term (2071–2100) future projections relative to the historical baseline period (1971–2000) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 CO2 emission scenarios. The model evaluation showed a good model performance result during calibration (2000–2010) and validation (2011–2020) for streamflow (NSE = 0.82/0.83) and nitrate load (NSE = 0.71/0.68), indicating its suitability for adoption in the watershed. The climate change projection results showed a steady decline in streamflow and nitrate load for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in all projections, with the long-term projection scenario of RCP8.5 greatly affected. Autumn and winter saw a considerable drop in comparison to spring and summer. The decline in streamflow was attributed to the projected decrease in precipitation and increase in temperatures, while the nitrate load decline was consistent with the projected streamflow decline. Based on these projections, the long-term projection scenarios of RCP8.5 indicate dire situations requiring urgent policy changes and management interventions to minimize and mitigate the resulting climate change effects. Therefore, adapted agricultural management practices are needed to ensure sustainable water resource utilization and efficient nitrogen fertilizer application rates in the watershed to reduce pollution.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2454/46215
url https://hdl.handle.net/2454/46215
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/European Commission/Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/801586
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2015-64284-C2-1-R
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-112908RB-I00
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv © 2023 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv © 2023 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/msword
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
instname:Universidad Pública de Navarra
instname_str Universidad Pública de Navarra
reponame_str Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
collection Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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