On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings

Using the extended ERA5 reanalysis and three state-of-the-art models, this study explores how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the total frequency, seasonal cycle and preconditioning of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Reanalysis data shows that in the last seven decades, winte...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Palmeiro Núñez, Froila María, García-Serrano, J., Ruggieri, P., Batté, L., Gualdi, S.
Tipo de documento: artigo
Data de publicação:2023
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositório:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglês
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/102286
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/102286
Access Level:Acceso aberto
Palavra-chave:551.51
ENSO
Sudden stratospheric warming
Eurasian wave pattern
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
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spelling On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmingsPalmeiro Núñez, Froila MaríaGarcía-Serrano, J.Ruggieri, P.Batté, L.Gualdi, S.551.51ENSOSudden stratospheric warmingEurasian wave patternFísica atmosférica2501 Ciencias de la AtmósferaUsing the extended ERA5 reanalysis and three state-of-the-art models, this study explores how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the total frequency, seasonal cycle and preconditioning of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Reanalysis data shows that in the last seven decades, winters with SSWs were more common than winters without, regardless El Niño (EN) or La Niña (LN) occurrence or the ENSO/SSW definitions. In agreement with previous studies, our models tend to simulate a linear ENSO-SSW relationship, with more SSWs for EN, around mid-winter (January–February) as in reanalysis, and less for LN when compared to neutral conditions. Independently of ENSO, the main tropospheric precursor of SSWs appears to be an anomalous wave-like pattern over Eurasia, but it is dominated by wavenumber 1 (WN1) for EN and shows an enhanced wavenumber 2 (WN2) for LN. The differences in this Eurasian wave pattern, which is largely internally generated, emerge from the distinct configuration of the background, stationary wave pattern induced by ENSO in the North Pacific, favoring a stronger WN1 (WN2) component during EN (LN). Our results suggest that the ENSO-forced signal relies on modulating the seasonal-mean polar vortex strength, becoming weaker and more displaced (stronger and more stable) for EN (LN), while ENSO-unforced wave activity represents the ultimate trigger of SSWs. This supports the view that ENSO and SSWs are distinct sources of variability of the winter atmospheric circulation operating at different time-scales and may reconcile previous findings in this context.WileyUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20232023-04-1020232023-04-10journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/102286reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1022862026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
title On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
spellingShingle On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
Palmeiro Núñez, Froila María
551.51
ENSO
Sudden stratospheric warming
Eurasian wave pattern
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
title_short On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
title_full On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
title_fullStr On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
title_full_unstemmed On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
title_sort On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Palmeiro Núñez, Froila María
García-Serrano, J.
Ruggieri, P.
Batté, L.
Gualdi, S.
author Palmeiro Núñez, Froila María
author_facet Palmeiro Núñez, Froila María
García-Serrano, J.
Ruggieri, P.
Batté, L.
Gualdi, S.
author_role author
author2 García-Serrano, J.
Ruggieri, P.
Batté, L.
Gualdi, S.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 551.51
ENSO
Sudden stratospheric warming
Eurasian wave pattern
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
topic 551.51
ENSO
Sudden stratospheric warming
Eurasian wave pattern
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
description Using the extended ERA5 reanalysis and three state-of-the-art models, this study explores how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the total frequency, seasonal cycle and preconditioning of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Reanalysis data shows that in the last seven decades, winters with SSWs were more common than winters without, regardless El Niño (EN) or La Niña (LN) occurrence or the ENSO/SSW definitions. In agreement with previous studies, our models tend to simulate a linear ENSO-SSW relationship, with more SSWs for EN, around mid-winter (January–February) as in reanalysis, and less for LN when compared to neutral conditions. Independently of ENSO, the main tropospheric precursor of SSWs appears to be an anomalous wave-like pattern over Eurasia, but it is dominated by wavenumber 1 (WN1) for EN and shows an enhanced wavenumber 2 (WN2) for LN. The differences in this Eurasian wave pattern, which is largely internally generated, emerge from the distinct configuration of the background, stationary wave pattern induced by ENSO in the North Pacific, favoring a stronger WN1 (WN2) component during EN (LN). Our results suggest that the ENSO-forced signal relies on modulating the seasonal-mean polar vortex strength, becoming weaker and more displaced (stronger and more stable) for EN (LN), while ENSO-unforced wave activity represents the ultimate trigger of SSWs. This supports the view that ENSO and SSWs are distinct sources of variability of the winter atmospheric circulation operating at different time-scales and may reconcile previous findings in this context.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023-04-10
2023
2023-04-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/102286
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/102286
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.300724

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