Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming

The study analyses observed and numerical simulations of daily maximum and minimum temperature from 1920 onwards and to investigate the unprecedented heat event that occurred in 21–23 August 2023 in Barcelona. The historical changes in the intensity of such events, their expected future changes unde...

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Autores: Lemus-Canovas, Marc, Montesinos Ciuró, Eduard, Cearreta-Innocenti, Tania, Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto, Royé, Dominic
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:2445/224883
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/224883
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Altes temperatures
Calor
Canvi climàtic
Escalfament global
Climatologia urbana
Barcelona (Catalunya)
High temperatures
Heat
Climatic change
Global warming
Urban climatology
Barcelona (Catalonia)
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spelling Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warmingLemus-Canovas, MarcMontesinos Ciuró, EduardCearreta-Innocenti, TaniaSerrano-Notivoli, RobertoRoyé, DominicAltes temperaturesCalorCanvi climàticEscalfament globalClimatologia urbanaBarcelona (Catalunya)High temperaturesHeatClimatic changeGlobal warmingUrban climatologyBarcelona (Catalonia)The study analyses observed and numerical simulations of daily maximum and minimum temperature from 1920 onwards and to investigate the unprecedented heat event that occurred in 21–23 August 2023 in Barcelona. The historical changes in the intensity of such events, their expected future changes under scenarios of +1.5 ◦C, +2 ◦C, and + 3 ◦C, and the future exposure of populations to such kind of events are examined using the flow analogues approach. The findings indicate a significant increase in observed temperatures for similar heatwaves to those occurred in August 2023. The study also emphasises the impact of global warming on the intensification of heat events over the impact of urbanization. Additionally, after examining the role of natural variability in temperature changes, we concluded that global warming is the primary factor driving the increase in heatwave intensity. In terms of the frequency of such events, we found that extreme heat events, such as the August 2023 heatwave, will become 2 and 5 times more likely with a global summer warming of 2 ◦C and 3 ◦C, respectively. This will expose a large portion of the population to dangerous heat levels highlighting the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5 ◦C to mitigate the impacts on urban populations.Elsevier B.V.2025202520242025info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion14 p.application/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/224883Articles publicats en revistes (Geografia)reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunyainstname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)InglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102019Urban Climate, 2024, vol. 56, p. 1-14https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102019cc-by-nc (c) Lemus-Canovas, Marc et al., 2024https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:recercat.cat:2445/2248832026-05-29T05:05:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
title Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
spellingShingle Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
Lemus-Canovas, Marc
Altes temperatures
Calor
Canvi climàtic
Escalfament global
Climatologia urbana
Barcelona (Catalunya)
High temperatures
Heat
Climatic change
Global warming
Urban climatology
Barcelona (Catalonia)
title_short Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
title_full Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
title_fullStr Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
title_full_unstemmed Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
title_sort Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lemus-Canovas, Marc
Montesinos Ciuró, Eduard
Cearreta-Innocenti, Tania
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Royé, Dominic
author Lemus-Canovas, Marc
author_facet Lemus-Canovas, Marc
Montesinos Ciuró, Eduard
Cearreta-Innocenti, Tania
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Royé, Dominic
author_role author
author2 Montesinos Ciuró, Eduard
Cearreta-Innocenti, Tania
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Royé, Dominic
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Altes temperatures
Calor
Canvi climàtic
Escalfament global
Climatologia urbana
Barcelona (Catalunya)
High temperatures
Heat
Climatic change
Global warming
Urban climatology
Barcelona (Catalonia)
topic Altes temperatures
Calor
Canvi climàtic
Escalfament global
Climatologia urbana
Barcelona (Catalunya)
High temperatures
Heat
Climatic change
Global warming
Urban climatology
Barcelona (Catalonia)
description The study analyses observed and numerical simulations of daily maximum and minimum temperature from 1920 onwards and to investigate the unprecedented heat event that occurred in 21–23 August 2023 in Barcelona. The historical changes in the intensity of such events, their expected future changes under scenarios of +1.5 ◦C, +2 ◦C, and + 3 ◦C, and the future exposure of populations to such kind of events are examined using the flow analogues approach. The findings indicate a significant increase in observed temperatures for similar heatwaves to those occurred in August 2023. The study also emphasises the impact of global warming on the intensification of heat events over the impact of urbanization. Additionally, after examining the role of natural variability in temperature changes, we concluded that global warming is the primary factor driving the increase in heatwave intensity. In terms of the frequency of such events, we found that extreme heat events, such as the August 2023 heatwave, will become 2 and 5 times more likely with a global summer warming of 2 ◦C and 3 ◦C, respectively. This will expose a large portion of the population to dangerous heat levels highlighting the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5 ◦C to mitigate the impacts on urban populations.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2025
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/224883
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/224883
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102019
Urban Climate, 2024, vol. 56, p. 1-14
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102019
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by-nc (c) Lemus-Canovas, Marc et al., 2024
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by-nc (c) Lemus-Canovas, Marc et al., 2024
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 14 p.
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier B.V.
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier B.V.
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Geografia)
reponame:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
instname:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
instname_str Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
reponame_str Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
collection Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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