Performance of an impact-based earthquake early warning system in the Alboran sea
This article presents the implementation and testing of a new P-wave shaking-forecastbased earthquake early warning system (EEWS) at the Ibero-Maghrebian region (IMR). The method integrates peak ground velocity (PGV) predictions derived from observed P-wave amplitudes with region-specific ground-mot...
| Autores: | , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2025 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) |
| Repositorio: | Docta Complutense |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/131500 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/131500 |
| Access Level: | acceso embargado |
| Palabra clave: | 550.3 Ground-motion Intensity Sismología (Física) 2507 Geofísica |
| Sumario: | This article presents the implementation and testing of a new P-wave shaking-forecastbased earthquake early warning system (EEWS) at the Ibero-Maghrebian region (IMR). The method integrates peak ground velocity (PGV) predictions derived from observed P-wave amplitudes with region-specific ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to facilitate real-time mapping of the potential damage zone. We determined empirical relationships between PGV and P-wave peak amplitudes (in acceleration, velocity, and displacement) and magnitude, along with the development of a GMPE for Mw >= 4 earthquakes in the IMR. These relationships are validated in the EEWS application using data from the 2016 Alboran Sea seismic series (Mw 5.0-6.4), which showed minimal discrepancies in origin time, epicenter location, and magnitude estimates compared to previous studies. A retrospective performance analysis for the Mw 6.4 mainshock indicated lead times of 14-62 sat a PGV threshold of 0.20 cm/s, with lead times increasing with distance. At a higher threshold of 0.60 cm/s, the lead time was 20 s for distances up to 170 km. The accuracy of impact predictions improved overtime, with successful alerts rising from 72% to 90% as the final predictions were made. Despite some limitations due to focusing on moderate-magnitude earthquakes (Mw <= 6:4), the EEWS method has proven effective for offshore events in areas with sparse instrumentation. |
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