The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary

[Data availability] The original dataset of stock assessment inputs and outputs is available via ICES as part of the WKBSS3 benchmark group. R code to reproduce the analysis is freely available via GitHub (https://github.com/akatan999/MSErefpts/).

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Winker, Henning, Cardinale, Massimiliano, Gerritsen, Hans D., Gil-Herrera, Juan, Castellanos, Paola, Farias, Inês, Sampedro, Paz, Moura, Teresa, Mosqueira, Iago, Kell, Laurence
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/411976
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/411976
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105022656287
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:ICES advice framework
Management strategy evaluation
MSY
Reference points estimation
id ES_7f4d4c64fb73294bddb421df8de2a57d
oai_identifier_str oai:digital.csic.es:10261/411976
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionaryWinker, HenningCardinale, MassimilianoGerritsen, Hans D.Gil-Herrera, JuanCastellanos, PaolaFarias, InêsSampedro, PazMoura, TeresaMosqueira, IagoKell, LaurenceICES advice frameworkManagement strategy evaluationMSYReference points estimation[Data availability] The original dataset of stock assessment inputs and outputs is available via ICES as part of the WKBSS3 benchmark group. R code to reproduce the analysis is freely available via GitHub (https://github.com/akatan999/MSErefpts/).In the Northeast Atlantic, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) provides scientific advice under the precautionary approach (PA) and maximum sustainable yield (MSY) principles. FMSY, the exploitation level that achieves MSY in the long term, is derived in ICES through stochastic simulations with the software EQSIM for most of the stocks. The computed FMSY is then conditioned on the PA such that fishing at FMSY does not exceed a 5% probability of the spawning stock biomass falling below the limit reference point Blim. We compared reference points estimated using EQSIM and a short-cut management strategy evaluation (MSE) tool (RPETool), which approximates a full-feedback control loop, and, differently from EQSIM, mimics the stock assessment advice process, including all data lags, and retains the original structure of the assessment model. Here, we showed that the simplifications of the management system and the assessment model, which are necessary for conducting simulations with EQSIM, result in the breaching of the PA for 3 of 4 recently benchmarked stocks. For the only stock for which the PA was not violated, the EQSIM estimate of FMSY was still larger than the actual FMSY estimated within the assessment model, and long-term yields were not maximized. Considering that EQSIM has been used since 2017 to derive reference points in ICES for more than 75% of the data-rich stocks, it is urgent that it is phased out and substituted by a more appropriate approach, like RPETool. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the asymmetry between increased risk of breaching Blim when fishing at or above FMSY and low risk in terms of the minimal loss in long-term yield when fishing below FMSY, with <5% yield loss even if F were reduced to around 60% of FMSY. Considering the wide ranges of additional uncertainties about the assessment model and the associated FMSY estimate, we propose that it is time for a paradigm shift within ICES to advocate for FMSY being the upper limit for advice on fishing opportunities rather than the target.No specific funding was provided for this work.Peer reviewedOxford University PressCardinale, Massimiliano [0000-0003-1870-3882]Gil-Herrera, Juan [0000-0001-8940-5749]Castellanos, Paola [0000-0002-2281-5572]Sampedro, Paz [0000-0002-1974-7302]Moura, Teresa [0000-0002-2258-4313]Mosqueira, Iago [0000-0002-3252-0591]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202520252025info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/411976https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105022656287reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)InglésCentro Oceanográfico de Cádiz, (COCAD)Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña, (COAC)The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaf204https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaf204Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/4119762026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
title The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
spellingShingle The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
Winker, Henning
ICES advice framework
Management strategy evaluation
MSY
Reference points estimation
title_short The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
title_full The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
title_fullStr The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
title_full_unstemmed The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
title_sort The ICES MSY approach to reference point estimation is not precautionary
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Winker, Henning
Cardinale, Massimiliano
Gerritsen, Hans D.
Gil-Herrera, Juan
Castellanos, Paola
Farias, Inês
Sampedro, Paz
Moura, Teresa
Mosqueira, Iago
Kell, Laurence
author Winker, Henning
author_facet Winker, Henning
Cardinale, Massimiliano
Gerritsen, Hans D.
Gil-Herrera, Juan
Castellanos, Paola
Farias, Inês
Sampedro, Paz
Moura, Teresa
Mosqueira, Iago
Kell, Laurence
author_role author
author2 Cardinale, Massimiliano
Gerritsen, Hans D.
Gil-Herrera, Juan
Castellanos, Paola
Farias, Inês
Sampedro, Paz
Moura, Teresa
Mosqueira, Iago
Kell, Laurence
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Cardinale, Massimiliano [0000-0003-1870-3882]
Gil-Herrera, Juan [0000-0001-8940-5749]
Castellanos, Paola [0000-0002-2281-5572]
Sampedro, Paz [0000-0002-1974-7302]
Moura, Teresa [0000-0002-2258-4313]
Mosqueira, Iago [0000-0002-3252-0591]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ICES advice framework
Management strategy evaluation
MSY
Reference points estimation
topic ICES advice framework
Management strategy evaluation
MSY
Reference points estimation
description [Data availability] The original dataset of stock assessment inputs and outputs is available via ICES as part of the WKBSS3 benchmark group. R code to reproduce the analysis is freely available via GitHub (https://github.com/akatan999/MSErefpts/).
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/411976
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105022656287
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/411976
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105022656287
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Centro Oceanográfico de Cádiz, (COCAD)
Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña, (COAC)
The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaf204
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaf204
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869411813769084928
score 15,811543

Similares en LA Referencia