Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties
25 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004849.-- Data Availability Statement: The R (R Core Team, 2024) code, and associated data, detailing the workflow for this paper are available via the following repository: Murphy et al. (2024). This study used seve...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2025 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) |
| Repositorio: | DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:digital.csic.es:10261/386621 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/386621 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | http://metadata.un.org/sdg/14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development |
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Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| title |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| spellingShingle |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties Murphy, Kieran http://metadata.un.org/sdg/14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development |
| title_short |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| title_full |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| title_fullStr |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| title_sort |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Murphy, Kieran Fierro‐Arcos, Denisse Rohr, Tyler Green, David Novaglio, Camilla Baker, Katherine Ortega-Cisneros Eddy, Tyler D. Harrison, Cheryl Hill, Simeon L. Eskuche-Keith, Patrick Cataldo‐Mendez, Camila Petrik, Colleen M. Pinkerton, Matthew H. Spence, Paul Stollberg, Ilaria Subramaniam, Roshni C. Trebilco, Rowan Tulloch, Vivitskaia Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Bestley, Sophie Bianchi, Daniele Boyd, Philip W. Buchanan, Pearse J. Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea Coll, Marta Corney, Stuart Datta, Samik Everett, Jason D. Forestier, Romain Fulton, Elizabeth A. Guibourd de Luzinais, Vianney Heneghan, Ryan F. Mason, Julia G. Maury, Olivier McMahon, Clive R. Murphy, Eugene J. Richardson, Anthony J. Tittensor, Derek P. Spillias, Scott Steenbeek, Jeroen Veytia, Devi Blanchard, Julia L. |
| author |
Murphy, Kieran |
| author_facet |
Murphy, Kieran Fierro‐Arcos, Denisse Rohr, Tyler Green, David Novaglio, Camilla Baker, Katherine Ortega-Cisneros Eddy, Tyler D. Harrison, Cheryl Hill, Simeon L. Eskuche-Keith, Patrick Cataldo‐Mendez, Camila Petrik, Colleen M. Pinkerton, Matthew H. Spence, Paul Stollberg, Ilaria Subramaniam, Roshni C. Trebilco, Rowan Tulloch, Vivitskaia Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Bestley, Sophie Bianchi, Daniele Boyd, Philip W. Buchanan, Pearse J. Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea Coll, Marta Corney, Stuart Datta, Samik Everett, Jason D. Forestier, Romain Fulton, Elizabeth A. Guibourd de Luzinais, Vianney Heneghan, Ryan F. Mason, Julia G. Maury, Olivier McMahon, Clive R. Murphy, Eugene J. Richardson, Anthony J. Tittensor, Derek P. Spillias, Scott Steenbeek, Jeroen Veytia, Devi Blanchard, Julia L. |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Fierro‐Arcos, Denisse Rohr, Tyler Green, David Novaglio, Camilla Baker, Katherine Ortega-Cisneros Eddy, Tyler D. Harrison, Cheryl Hill, Simeon L. Eskuche-Keith, Patrick Cataldo‐Mendez, Camila Petrik, Colleen M. Pinkerton, Matthew H. Spence, Paul Stollberg, Ilaria Subramaniam, Roshni C. Trebilco, Rowan Tulloch, Vivitskaia Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano Bestley, Sophie Bianchi, Daniele Boyd, Philip W. Buchanan, Pearse J. Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea Coll, Marta Corney, Stuart Datta, Samik Everett, Jason D. Forestier, Romain Fulton, Elizabeth A. Guibourd de Luzinais, Vianney Heneghan, Ryan F. Mason, Julia G. Maury, Olivier McMahon, Clive R. Murphy, Eugene J. Richardson, Anthony J. Tittensor, Derek P. Spillias, Scott Steenbeek, Jeroen Veytia, Devi Blanchard, Julia L. |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Australian Research Council Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science National Research Foundation (South Africa) Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) University of Tasmania Council of Australian University Librarians Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72] |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development |
| topic |
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development |
| description |
25 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004849.-- Data Availability Statement: The R (R Core Team, 2024) code, and associated data, detailing the workflow for this paper are available via the following repository: Murphy et al. (2024). This study used several publicly available datasets and datasets available upon request: the IWC individual catch database (Allison, 2020), NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave SIC (Meier et al., 2021), Oregon State University Ocean Productivity dataset (O’Malley, 2015), analytical phytoplankton carbon measurements (Graff et al., 2015), ISIMIP3a ocean physical and biogeochemical input data (Liu et al., 2022), and ISIMIP3a reconstructed fishing activity data (Novaglio et al., 2024) |
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2025 |
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2025 2025 2025 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Publisher's version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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article |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10261/386621 |
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Inglés |
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American Geophysical Union |
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American Geophysical Union |
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reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) |
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Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and UncertaintiesMurphy, KieranFierro‐Arcos, DenisseRohr, TylerGreen, DavidNovaglio, CamillaBaker, KatherineOrtega-CisnerosEddy, Tyler D.Harrison, CherylHill, Simeon L.Eskuche-Keith, PatrickCataldo‐Mendez, CamilaPetrik, Colleen M.Pinkerton, Matthew H.Spence, PaulStollberg, IlariaSubramaniam, Roshni C.Trebilco, RowanTulloch, VivitskaiaPalacios-Abrantes, JulianoBestley, SophieBianchi, DanieleBoyd, Philip W.Buchanan, Pearse J.Bryndum‐Buchholz, AndreaColl, MartaCorney, StuartDatta, SamikEverett, Jason D.Forestier, RomainFulton, Elizabeth A.Guibourd de Luzinais, VianneyHeneghan, Ryan F.Mason, Julia G.Maury, OlivierMcMahon, Clive R.Murphy, Eugene J.Richardson, Anthony J.Tittensor, Derek P.Spillias, ScottSteenbeek, JeroenVeytia, DeviBlanchard, Julia L.http://metadata.un.org/sdg/14Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development25 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004849.-- Data Availability Statement: The R (R Core Team, 2024) code, and associated data, detailing the workflow for this paper are available via the following repository: Murphy et al. (2024). This study used several publicly available datasets and datasets available upon request: the IWC individual catch database (Allison, 2020), NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave SIC (Meier et al., 2021), Oregon State University Ocean Productivity dataset (O’Malley, 2015), analytical phytoplankton carbon measurements (Graff et al., 2015), ISIMIP3a ocean physical and biogeochemical input data (Liu et al., 2022), and ISIMIP3a reconstructed fishing activity data (Novaglio et al., 2024)Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystemsKM, TR, DG, PS, SB, PB, and JB would like to acknowledge that this research was supported by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative, Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (Project Number SR200100008). TR is an ARC DECRA Recipient (DE240100115) funded by the Australian Government. KOC acknowledges support from the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant 136481). JB, CN, and DFA acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council Future Fellowship Project (FT210100798) and computational support from the Australian Research Data Commons Nectar Research Cloud via the University of Tasmania. KM, TR, KB, SB, PB, SC, and JB acknowledge support from the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP). MC and JS acknowledge funding from the Spanish National Project ProOcean (PID2020-118097RB-I00), Sospen (PID2021-124831OA-I00) and Seasentinels (CNS2022-135631) and MC acknowledges support by the “Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence” accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). Open access publishing facilitated by University of Tasmania, as part of the Wiley - University of Tasmania agreement via the Council of Australian University LibrariansPeer reviewedAmerican Geophysical UnionAustralian Research CouncilAustralian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic ScienceNational Research Foundation (South Africa)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)University of TasmaniaCouncil of Australian University LibrariansConsejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202520252025info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/386621reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-118097RB-I00info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2021-124831OA-I00https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004849Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3866212026-05-22T06:33:51Z |
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15.811543 |