Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting

Both renewable energy supply and electricity demand are strongly influenced by meteorological conditions and their evolution over time in terms of climate variability and climate change. However, knowledge of power output and demand forecasting beyond a few days remains poor. Current methodologies a...

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Autores: Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972, Torralba, Verónica|||0000-0002-8941-1548, Cortesi, Nicola, Christel, I., Palma, Ll., Manrique-Suñén, A., Lledó, Llorenç|||0000-0002-8628-6876, González-Reviriego, Nube, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/133649
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/133649
https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1222/1/012009
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Wind energy
Seasonal climate predictions
Energy forecasting
Energia eòlica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
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repository_id_str
spelling Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecastingSoret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972Torralba, Verónica|||0000-0002-8941-1548Cortesi, NicolaChristel, I.Palma, Ll.Manrique-Suñén, A.Lledó, Llorenç|||0000-0002-8628-6876González-Reviriego, NubeDoblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280Wind energySeasonal climate predictionsWind energyEnergy forecastingEnergia eòlicaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::EnergiesBoth renewable energy supply and electricity demand are strongly influenced by meteorological conditions and their evolution over time in terms of climate variability and climate change. However, knowledge of power output and demand forecasting beyond a few days remains poor. Current methodologies assume that long-term resource availability is constant, ignoring the fact that future wind resources could be significantly different from the past wind energy conditions. Such uncertainties create risks that affect investment in wind energy projects at the operational stage where energy yields affect cash flow and the balance of the grid. Here we assess whether sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions (S2S) can skilfully predict wind speed in Europe. To illustrate S2S potential applications, two periods with an unusual climate behaviour affecting the energy market will be presented. We find that wind speed forecasted using S2S exhibits predictability some weeks and months in advance in important regions for the energy sector such as the North Sea. If S2S are incorporated into planning activities for energy traders, energy producers, plant operators, plant investors, they could help improve management climate variability related risks.We thank the S2S4E (GA776787), NEWA (PCIN-2014-012-C07-07), ERA4CS-INDECIS (GA690462) and ERA4CS-MEDSCOPE (GA690462) projects funding for allowing us to carry out this research. We acknowledge use of the s2dverification (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/s2dverification) and Specs-Verification (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/SpecsVerification)R-language-based software packages.We also acknowledge the ECMWF for the provision of the ECMWF SEAS5 and the Monthly Prediction Systemsand the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets.Peer ReviewedIOP Publishing20192019-05-0120192019-05-29journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/133649https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1222/1/012009reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776787 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal climate forecasting for EnergyEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 690462 European Research Area for Climate Servicesopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/1336492026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
title Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
spellingShingle Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
Wind energy
Seasonal climate predictions
Wind energy
Energy forecasting
Energia eòlica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
title_short Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
title_full Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
title_fullStr Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
title_full_unstemmed Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
title_sort Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
Torralba, Verónica|||0000-0002-8941-1548
Cortesi, Nicola
Christel, I.
Palma, Ll.
Manrique-Suñén, A.
Lledó, Llorenç|||0000-0002-8628-6876
González-Reviriego, Nube
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
author Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
author_facet Soret, Albert|||0000-0002-1962-2972
Torralba, Verónica|||0000-0002-8941-1548
Cortesi, Nicola
Christel, I.
Palma, Ll.
Manrique-Suñén, A.
Lledó, Llorenç|||0000-0002-8628-6876
González-Reviriego, Nube
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
author_role author
author2 Torralba, Verónica|||0000-0002-8941-1548
Cortesi, Nicola
Christel, I.
Palma, Ll.
Manrique-Suñén, A.
Lledó, Llorenç|||0000-0002-8628-6876
González-Reviriego, Nube
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Wind energy
Seasonal climate predictions
Wind energy
Energy forecasting
Energia eòlica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
topic Wind energy
Seasonal climate predictions
Wind energy
Energy forecasting
Energia eòlica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
description Both renewable energy supply and electricity demand are strongly influenced by meteorological conditions and their evolution over time in terms of climate variability and climate change. However, knowledge of power output and demand forecasting beyond a few days remains poor. Current methodologies assume that long-term resource availability is constant, ignoring the fact that future wind resources could be significantly different from the past wind energy conditions. Such uncertainties create risks that affect investment in wind energy projects at the operational stage where energy yields affect cash flow and the balance of the grid. Here we assess whether sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions (S2S) can skilfully predict wind speed in Europe. To illustrate S2S potential applications, two periods with an unusual climate behaviour affecting the energy market will be presented. We find that wind speed forecasted using S2S exhibits predictability some weeks and months in advance in important regions for the energy sector such as the North Sea. If S2S are incorporated into planning activities for energy traders, energy producers, plant operators, plant investors, they could help improve management climate variability related risks.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-05-01
2019
2019-05-29
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/133649
https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1222/1/012009
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/133649
https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1222/1/012009
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776787 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal climate forecasting for Energy
European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 690462 European Research Area for Climate Services
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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