Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe

Objective: To estimate the instantaneous reproduction number $R_t$ and the epidemic growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreaks in the European region. Methods: We gathered daily laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in the most affected European countries from the beginning of the outbreak to Sept...

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Autores: Saldaña, F., Daza-Torres, M. L., Aguiar, M.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
Repositorio:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
OAI Identifier:oai:bird.bcamath.org:20.500.11824/1679
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1679
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290387
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Epidemiology, Reproduction number, Monkeypox, Europe, Parameter estimation
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spelling Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in EuropeSaldaña, F.Daza-Torres, M. L.Aguiar, M.Epidemiology, Reproduction number, Monkeypox, Europe, Parameter estimationObjective: To estimate the instantaneous reproduction number $R_t$ and the epidemic growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreaks in the European region. Methods: We gathered daily laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in the most affected European countries from the beginning of the outbreak to September 23, 2022. A data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number is obtained using a novel filtering type Bayesian inference. A phenomenological growth model coupled with a Bayesian sequential approach to update forecasts over time is used to obtain time-dependent growth rates in several countries. Results: The instantaneous reproduction number $R_t$ for the laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy. At the early phase of the outbreak, our estimation for $R_t$, which can be used as a proxy for the basic reproduction number $R_0$, was $2.06$ ($95\%$ CI $1.63-2.54$) for Spain, $2.62$ ($95\%$ CI $2.23-3.17$) for France, $2.81$ ($95\%$ CI $2.51-3.09$) for Germany, $1.82$ ($95\%$ CI $1.52-2.18$) for the UK, $2.84$ ($95\%$ CI $2.07-3.91$) for the Netherlands, $1.13$ ($95\%$ CI $0.99-1.32$) for Portugal, $3.06$ ($95\%$ CI $2.48-3.62$) for Italy. Cumulative cases for these countries present subexponential rather than exponential growth dynamics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the current monkeypox outbreaks present limited transmission chains of human-to-human secondary infection so the possibility of a huge pandemic is very low. Confirmed monkeypox cases are decreasing significantly in the European region, the decline might be attributed to public health interventions and behavioral changes in the population due to increased risk perception. Nevertheless, further strategies toward elimination are essential to avoid the subsequent evolution of the monkeypox virus that can result in new outbreaks.NoneN/A202320232023info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1679https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290387reponame:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Datainstname:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)Ingléshttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0290387info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/CEX2021-001142-Sinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BMTF/info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BERC/BERC.2022-2025Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:bird.bcamath.org:20.500.11824/16792026-06-19T12:47:47Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
title Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
spellingShingle Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
Saldaña, F.
Epidemiology, Reproduction number, Monkeypox, Europe, Parameter estimation
title_short Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
title_full Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
title_fullStr Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
title_full_unstemmed Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
title_sort Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Saldaña, F.
Daza-Torres, M. L.
Aguiar, M.
author Saldaña, F.
author_facet Saldaña, F.
Daza-Torres, M. L.
Aguiar, M.
author_role author
author2 Daza-Torres, M. L.
Aguiar, M.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Epidemiology, Reproduction number, Monkeypox, Europe, Parameter estimation
topic Epidemiology, Reproduction number, Monkeypox, Europe, Parameter estimation
description Objective: To estimate the instantaneous reproduction number $R_t$ and the epidemic growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreaks in the European region. Methods: We gathered daily laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in the most affected European countries from the beginning of the outbreak to September 23, 2022. A data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number is obtained using a novel filtering type Bayesian inference. A phenomenological growth model coupled with a Bayesian sequential approach to update forecasts over time is used to obtain time-dependent growth rates in several countries. Results: The instantaneous reproduction number $R_t$ for the laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy. At the early phase of the outbreak, our estimation for $R_t$, which can be used as a proxy for the basic reproduction number $R_0$, was $2.06$ ($95\%$ CI $1.63-2.54$) for Spain, $2.62$ ($95\%$ CI $2.23-3.17$) for France, $2.81$ ($95\%$ CI $2.51-3.09$) for Germany, $1.82$ ($95\%$ CI $1.52-2.18$) for the UK, $2.84$ ($95\%$ CI $2.07-3.91$) for the Netherlands, $1.13$ ($95\%$ CI $0.99-1.32$) for Portugal, $3.06$ ($95\%$ CI $2.48-3.62$) for Italy. Cumulative cases for these countries present subexponential rather than exponential growth dynamics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the current monkeypox outbreaks present limited transmission chains of human-to-human secondary infection so the possibility of a huge pandemic is very low. Confirmed monkeypox cases are decreasing significantly in the European region, the decline might be attributed to public health interventions and behavioral changes in the population due to increased risk perception. Nevertheless, further strategies toward elimination are essential to avoid the subsequent evolution of the monkeypox virus that can result in new outbreaks.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023
2023
N/A
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1679
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290387
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1679
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290387
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0290387
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/CEX2021-001142-S
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BMTF/
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/Gobierno Vasco/BERC/BERC.2022-2025
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
instname:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
instname_str Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
reponame_str BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
collection BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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