Digital cities and the spread of COVID-19: Characterizing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in five cities in Spain

Mathematical modeling has been fundamental to achieving near real-time accurate forecasts of the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions has played a key role in the application of policies to contain the spread. However, there is less work done regarding quanti...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Rodríguez, Jorge P., Aleta, Alberto, Moreno, Yamir
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Zaragoza
Repositorio:Zaguán. Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Zaragoza
OAI Identifier:oai:zaguan.unizar.es:126000
Acesso em linha:http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/126000
Access Level:acceso abierto
Descrição
Resumo:Mathematical modeling has been fundamental to achieving near real-time accurate forecasts of the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions has played a key role in the application of policies to contain the spread. However, there is less work done regarding quantitative approaches to characterize the impact of each intervention, which can greatly vary depending on the culture, region, and specific circumstances of the population under consideration. In this work, we develop a high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the spread of COVID-19 among the population in five Spanish cities. These populations synthesize multiple data sources that summarize the main interaction environments leading to potential contacts. We simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in these cities and study the effect of several non-pharmaceutical interventions. We illustrate the potential of our approach through a case study and derive the impact of the most relevant interventions through scenarios where they are suppressed. Our framework constitutes a first tool to simulate different intervention scenarios for decision-making.