Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change

Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution ofmarine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentiallydisrupting trophic interactions...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Bas, Maria, Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel, Fuster-Alonso, Alba, Julià, Laura, March, David, Ramírez Benítez, Francisco José, Cardona Pascual, Luis, Coll Montón, Marta
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/219810
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/219810
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Canvi climàtic
Predació (Biologia)
Cadenes alimentàries (Ecologia)
Climatic change
Predation (Biology)
Food chains (Ecology)
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spelling Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate changeBas, MariaOuled-Cheikh, JazelFuster-Alonso, AlbaJulià, LauraMarch, DavidRamírez Benítez, Francisco JoséCardona Pascual, LuisColl Montón, MartaCanvi climàticPredació (Biologia)Cadenes alimentàries (Ecologia)Climatic changePredation (Biology)Food chains (Ecology)Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution ofmarine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentiallydisrupting trophic interactions and affecting food web dynamics. Here, we evaluate long-termchanges in the spatial overlap of habitat suitability ranges for trophically related species, including crustaceans, fish, penguins, and pinnipeds across12 Large Marine Ecosystems from the Southern Hemisphere, merged into three primary regions: South America, SouthernAfrica, Australia and New Zealand. To this aim, we first use Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to hindcast and project species-specificchanges in suitable habitat from 1850 to 2100 under two future climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low climate forcing) andSSP5-8.5 (high climate forcing). We then analyze changes in species habitat suitability and potential predator–prey spatial overlaps.Findings reveal that marine species generally exhibit changes in their suitable habitats, with pronounced shifts towardshigher latitudes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, contrasting trends emerge among predators across functional groupsand regions of South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. These variations highlight the need for species andregional-specific management responses. We also project contrasting spatial mismatches between predators and prey: predatorsexperiencing declines in suitable habitat tend to exhibit greater overlap with their prey in future scenarios, whereas those withexpanding suitable habitat show reduced spatial overlap with their prey. This study provides valuable insights that can informspatial management strategies in response to climate change and illustrate how climate change may weaken species' ability toadapt to climate-driven environmental changes due to trophic disruptions.John Wiley & Sons2025info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/219810Articles publicats en revistes (Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésVersió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70080Global Change Biology, 2025, vol. 31, num.2, p. 1-18https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70080(c) John Wiley & Sons, 2025info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/2198102026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
title Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
spellingShingle Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
Bas, Maria
Canvi climàtic
Predació (Biologia)
Cadenes alimentàries (Ecologia)
Climatic change
Predation (Biology)
Food chains (Ecology)
title_short Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
title_full Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
title_fullStr Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
title_full_unstemmed Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
title_sort Potential spatial mismatches between marine predators and their prey in the Southern Hemisphere in response to climate change
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bas, Maria
Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel
Fuster-Alonso, Alba
Julià, Laura
March, David
Ramírez Benítez, Francisco José
Cardona Pascual, Luis
Coll Montón, Marta
author Bas, Maria
author_facet Bas, Maria
Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel
Fuster-Alonso, Alba
Julià, Laura
March, David
Ramírez Benítez, Francisco José
Cardona Pascual, Luis
Coll Montón, Marta
author_role author
author2 Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel
Fuster-Alonso, Alba
Julià, Laura
March, David
Ramírez Benítez, Francisco José
Cardona Pascual, Luis
Coll Montón, Marta
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Canvi climàtic
Predació (Biologia)
Cadenes alimentàries (Ecologia)
Climatic change
Predation (Biology)
Food chains (Ecology)
topic Canvi climàtic
Predació (Biologia)
Cadenes alimentàries (Ecologia)
Climatic change
Predation (Biology)
Food chains (Ecology)
description Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution ofmarine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentiallydisrupting trophic interactions and affecting food web dynamics. Here, we evaluate long-termchanges in the spatial overlap of habitat suitability ranges for trophically related species, including crustaceans, fish, penguins, and pinnipeds across12 Large Marine Ecosystems from the Southern Hemisphere, merged into three primary regions: South America, SouthernAfrica, Australia and New Zealand. To this aim, we first use Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to hindcast and project species-specificchanges in suitable habitat from 1850 to 2100 under two future climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low climate forcing) andSSP5-8.5 (high climate forcing). We then analyze changes in species habitat suitability and potential predator–prey spatial overlaps.Findings reveal that marine species generally exhibit changes in their suitable habitats, with pronounced shifts towardshigher latitudes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, contrasting trends emerge among predators across functional groupsand regions of South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. These variations highlight the need for species andregional-specific management responses. We also project contrasting spatial mismatches between predators and prey: predatorsexperiencing declines in suitable habitat tend to exhibit greater overlap with their prey in future scenarios, whereas those withexpanding suitable habitat show reduced spatial overlap with their prey. This study provides valuable insights that can informspatial management strategies in response to climate change and illustrate how climate change may weaken species' ability toadapt to climate-driven environmental changes due to trophic disruptions.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/219810
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/219810
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70080
Global Change Biology, 2025, vol. 31, num.2, p. 1-18
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70080
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv (c) John Wiley & Sons, 2025
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) John Wiley & Sons, 2025
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.198674

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