Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches

Background The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this study was...

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Autores: Noll, Madeleine, Wall, Richard, Makepeace, Benjamin L., Newbury, Hannah, Adaszek, Lukasz, Bødker, René, Estrada-Peña, Agustín, Guillot, Jacques, da Fonseca, Isabel Pereira, Probst, Julia, Overgaauw, Paul, Strube, Christina, Zakham, Fathiah, Zanet, Stefania, Rose Vineer, Hannah
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Zaragoza
Repositorio:Zaguán. Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Zaragoza
OAI Identifier:oai:zaguan.unizar.es:131618
Acesso em linha:http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/131618
Access Level:acceso abierto
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spelling Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approachesNoll, MadeleineWall, RichardMakepeace, Benjamin L.Newbury, HannahAdaszek, LukaszBødker, RenéEstrada-Peña, AgustínGuillot, Jacquesda Fonseca, Isabel PereiraProbst, JuliaOvergaauw, PaulStrube, ChristinaZakham, FathiahZanet, StefaniaRose Vineer, HannahBackground The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of different climate niche modelling approaches to explain the known distribution of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus in Europe. Methods A series of climate niche models, using different combinations of input data, were constructed and assessed. Species occurrence records obtained from systematic literature searches and Global Biodiversity Information Facility data were thinned to different degrees to remove sampling spatial bias. Four sources of climate data were used: bioclimatic variables, WorldClim, TerraClimate and MODIS satellite-derived data. Eight different model training extents were examined and three modelling frameworks were used: maximum entropy, generalised additive models and random forest models. The results were validated through internal cross-validation, comparison with an external independent dataset and expert opinion. Results The performance metrics and predictive ability of the different modelling approaches varied significantly within and between each species. Different combinations were better able to define the distribution of each of the two species. However, no single approach was considered fully able to capture the known distribution of the species. When considering the mean of the performance metrics of internal and external validation, 24 models for I. ricinus and 11 models for D. reticulatus of the 96 constructed were considered adequate according to the following criteria: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve > 0.7; true skill statistic > 0.4; Miller’s calibration slope 0.25 above or below 1; Boyce index > 0.9; omission rate < 0.15. Conclusions This comprehensive analysis suggests that there is no single ‘best practice’ climate modelling approach to account for the distribution of these tick species. This has important implications for attempts to predict climate-mediated impacts on future tick distribution. It is suggested here that climate variables alone are not sufficient; habitat type, host availability and anthropogenic impacts, not included in current modelling approaches, could contribute to determining tick presence or absence at the local or regional scale.2023info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://zaguan.unizar.es/record/131618reponame:Zaguán. Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Zaragozainstname:Universidad de ZaragozaInglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:zaguan.unizar.es:1316182026-05-29T13:59:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
title Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
spellingShingle Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
Noll, Madeleine
title_short Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
title_full Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
title_fullStr Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
title_sort Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Noll, Madeleine
Wall, Richard
Makepeace, Benjamin L.
Newbury, Hannah
Adaszek, Lukasz
Bødker, René
Estrada-Peña, Agustín
Guillot, Jacques
da Fonseca, Isabel Pereira
Probst, Julia
Overgaauw, Paul
Strube, Christina
Zakham, Fathiah
Zanet, Stefania
Rose Vineer, Hannah
author Noll, Madeleine
author_facet Noll, Madeleine
Wall, Richard
Makepeace, Benjamin L.
Newbury, Hannah
Adaszek, Lukasz
Bødker, René
Estrada-Peña, Agustín
Guillot, Jacques
da Fonseca, Isabel Pereira
Probst, Julia
Overgaauw, Paul
Strube, Christina
Zakham, Fathiah
Zanet, Stefania
Rose Vineer, Hannah
author_role author
author2 Wall, Richard
Makepeace, Benjamin L.
Newbury, Hannah
Adaszek, Lukasz
Bødker, René
Estrada-Peña, Agustín
Guillot, Jacques
da Fonseca, Isabel Pereira
Probst, Julia
Overgaauw, Paul
Strube, Christina
Zakham, Fathiah
Zanet, Stefania
Rose Vineer, Hannah
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
description Background The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of different climate niche modelling approaches to explain the known distribution of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus in Europe. Methods A series of climate niche models, using different combinations of input data, were constructed and assessed. Species occurrence records obtained from systematic literature searches and Global Biodiversity Information Facility data were thinned to different degrees to remove sampling spatial bias. Four sources of climate data were used: bioclimatic variables, WorldClim, TerraClimate and MODIS satellite-derived data. Eight different model training extents were examined and three modelling frameworks were used: maximum entropy, generalised additive models and random forest models. The results were validated through internal cross-validation, comparison with an external independent dataset and expert opinion. Results The performance metrics and predictive ability of the different modelling approaches varied significantly within and between each species. Different combinations were better able to define the distribution of each of the two species. However, no single approach was considered fully able to capture the known distribution of the species. When considering the mean of the performance metrics of internal and external validation, 24 models for I. ricinus and 11 models for D. reticulatus of the 96 constructed were considered adequate according to the following criteria: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve > 0.7; true skill statistic > 0.4; Miller’s calibration slope 0.25 above or below 1; Boyce index > 0.9; omission rate < 0.15. Conclusions This comprehensive analysis suggests that there is no single ‘best practice’ climate modelling approach to account for the distribution of these tick species. This has important implications for attempts to predict climate-mediated impacts on future tick distribution. It is suggested here that climate variables alone are not sufficient; habitat type, host availability and anthropogenic impacts, not included in current modelling approaches, could contribute to determining tick presence or absence at the local or regional scale.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/131618
url http://zaguan.unizar.es/record/131618
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv
publisher.none.fl_str_mv
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Zaguán. Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Zaragoza
instname:Universidad de Zaragoza
instname_str Universidad de Zaragoza
reponame_str Zaguán. Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Zaragoza
collection Zaguán. Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Zaragoza
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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