Time series interpolation via global optimization of moments fitting

Most time series forecasting methods assume the series has no missing values. When missing values exist, interpolation methods, while filling in the blanks, may substantially modify the statistical pattern of the data, since critical features such as moments and autocorrelations are not necessarily...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Carrizosa Priego, Emilio José, Olivares Nadal, Alba Victoria, Ramírez Cobo, Josefa
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2013
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/107820
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/107820
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2013.04.008
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Missing values
Moments matching
Global optimization
Variable Neighborhood Search
Descripción
Sumario:Most time series forecasting methods assume the series has no missing values. When missing values exist, interpolation methods, while filling in the blanks, may substantially modify the statistical pattern of the data, since critical features such as moments and autocorrelations are not necessarily preserved. In this paper we propose to interpolate missing data in time series by solving a smooth nonconvex optimization problem which aims to preserve moments and autocorrelations. Since the problem may be multimodal, Variable Neighborhood Search is used to trade off quality of the interpolation (in terms of preservation of the statistical pattern) and computing times. Our approach is compared with standard interpolation methods and illustrated on both simulated and real data.